Thread by @themarketswork

I have been pounding on this point on our employment numbers forever.
themarketswork.com/2018/07/25/tar…

https://twitter.com/SaraCarterDC/status/1230870793455718400

The Fed has chronically under-estimated the flexibility of our labor markets.

There are two primary sources of "new" workers.

Those who are "under-employed" & those who are "not in the workforce"

Jan 2020:

5.9 million unemployed Americans.
4.2 million involuntary part-time working Americans.
1.3 million Americans who have temporarily given up looking for work.

11.4 million Americans looking for full-time employment.

Jan 2020:

94.9 million Americans not in the workforce

~ 1/2 are retired.
13.5 million on some form of disability. Number of truly disabled is inflated.
~6mm are Social Security beneficiaries who are neither aged nor disabled
15mm in school or in job-training.
13.5mm caregivers

If we add folks who are “retired but willing to work” along with excesses from our disability ranks and those lured by higher wages, one can see that we have significantly more flexibility within our employment levels than the stated rate of 3.6% would suggest.

Another way to look at the employment scenario:

Percentage of Americans expected to pay no Federal Income tax in 2020 is 43%

This doesn’t mean 45% of Americans pay no taxes. Most people still pay Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes along with state and local sales taxes

There will always be a significant percentage who pay no federal taxes due to retirement, etc.

But it doesn’t equate to anywhere near 43%.

The 43% rate, when combined with low reported unemployment levels, is indicative of the problem.

There is a segment of American Citizens that have been chronically under-employed, working in low-paying service sector jobs, trying to make ends meet.

Our unemployment numbers are good. But there are a lot of folks who under-employed and willing to work for higher paying jobs.