Thread by @jonworth

There is one person who makes this #CDUVorsitz CDU party leadership election so fascinating:

Friedrich Merz

To be clear: this thread is not about who I want to win, nor who even is most likely to win.

Instead it is about what Merz tells us about German politics, the CDU, and the state of the race to succeed Merkel.

First, how is Merz even in this race to be CDU party leader anyway?

His political career is a peculiar one. He was a MEP 1994-1999, then in the Bundestag from 1999. He was chair of the CDU-CSU Parliamentary Group (Fraktion) 2000-2002, when Merkel ousted him from that post.

He stayed in the Bundestag until 2009, but was already turning back to his legal career from 2004 onwards and running down his political work.

Look at his predecessors and successors as chair of the Parliamentary Group de.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU-F…
Each and every one of them Members of the Bundestag (MdB) for years before taking the role.

Merz's star rose fast - just 4 years as a MdB before becoming Deputy Chairperson, 6 years to become Chair, and that aged just 45 (young in German politics).

But his star faded fast too - as Merkel managed to oust him, & then became the dominant character of CDU & German politics

And then suddenly in 2018 he is back. After a decade in the political wilderness. And backed once again by his old mentor Wolfgang Schäuble, just as he had been in 2000.

Schäuble has been quiet this week so far though.

That Merz was a viable candidate in 2018 after so long in the wilderness is a sign of Merkel's bad succession planning - a field of the ex-State Premier of Saarland Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK), Health Minister Spahn, and Merz was hardly a stellar line up.

But in 2018 Merz lost narrowly to AKK, and since then AKK has struggled, culminating in the Thüringen debacle and her decision earlier in February to not run to be CDU-CSU Chancellor candidate and to stand down as CDU party leader.

And so enters Merz once more.

This time the opponents are different. Spahn has decided to stand aside for Armin Laschet, the State Premier of Nordrhein Westfalen. And Norbert Röttgen, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Bundestag is also running,

Both Laschet and Röttgen are essentially normal sorts of candidates for the top job - Laschet makes the step up from Land level, and Röttgen is a former minister and experienced Parliamentarian who is currently active in federal politics.

Merz's most relevant experience was, by contrast, almost two decades ago.

And then there is Merz's behaviour.

In contrast to Laschet trying to be all things to all people, and Röttgen promising a gender balanced ticket, Merz is abrasive.

He only lost to AKK in 2018 because he gave a bad speech, he said at a press conference today launching his candidature. It was "poor form" he said.

And then he went on to give a very blunt response to a question about whether the way to deal with the problem of right wing extremism is a greater focus on clan crime and border controls. "Yes" he said.

More on that from Zeit here: zeit.de/politik/deutsc…

Does he actually really believe what he said today? Or does he think he is being the anti-politician, the anti-Laschet, by 'telling it as it is'?

Meanwhile he tied himself in knots in 2018 when trying to answer if he is a millionaire - why is that so hard to answer in a straightforward manner?
spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…

There is something in Merz that crosses from self confidence to arrogance and ends up with hubris. And you never quite know which one you will get.

But a standard CDU politician he is not. He is not a person for consensus, for careful words, for moderation.

And I cannot help but think that his decade in the wilderness means his political skills are not quite as good any more as he thinks they are. There's somehow this lurking feeling I cannot shake with Merz that you could catch him out.

Above all though, it almost comes across as if Merz thinks that the CDU needs him more than he needs the CDU.

As if the very return to front line politics is a bit of a drag, mixed in with the edge of glee he would get from succeeding Merkel after all these years.

There are many CDU voters and members, men in particular, who see something of themselves in Merz.

No more of the pussy-footing around of the Merkel years, no more of the careful consensus building. It's time for a do-er, time for an alpha male.

For the party's top brass, Merz will, I think, be a step too far once again. In 2018 he was the comeback kid, fresh. Now he is still the outsider, but the baggage he brings is better known, his sharp edges clearer to see.

But Merz being in the running, and still in with a chance, makes this CDU leadership election fascinating and mildly scary to follow.

/ends