I'm here to help - in the only way I can - with a diagram!
Plot out all the routes and the options, and put some probabilities on each of the routes, and work it all out
@ArminLaschet 65.5%
@_FriedrichMerz 24%
@n_roettgen 10.5%
@ArminLaschet 49%
@_FriedrichMerz 18%
@n_roettgen 8%
@Markus_Soeder 26% (CSU)
High res PNG:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/cdul…
High res PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/cdul…
.ods file of the calculations:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/cdul…
draw(dot)io XML:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/cdul…
/ends