WHO says “decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real.”
Cites stats: reported decline in fever clinic visits, opening of beds, challenges in clinical trial recruitment.
Is this decline real, real but temporary, fake, or something else?
who.int/docs/default-s…
Cites stats: reported decline in fever clinic visits, opening of beds, challenges in clinical trial recruitment.
Is this decline real, real but temporary, fake, or something else?
who.int/docs/default-s…
The case for a real decline:
- quarantine of hundreds of millions
- highly coordinated state & society response
- generally cooperative citizenry
If real, China's model gets exported worldwide. Though it's not clear that the West can or would want to adopt it.
- quarantine of hundreds of millions
- highly coordinated state & society response
- generally cooperative citizenry
If real, China's model gets exported worldwide. Though it's not clear that the West can or would want to adopt it.
The case for a real, but temporary decline:
- quarantine is not normal circumstances
- virus is highly contagious
- as soon as people return to daily life, R0 rises
If this happens, we're in for a long fight till we can get antivirals or vaccines. And production will be hard.
- quarantine is not normal circumstances
- virus is highly contagious
- as soon as people return to daily life, R0 rises
If this happens, we're in for a long fight till we can get antivirals or vaccines. And production will be hard.
The case for a fake decline:
- Censorship of Li Wenliang and bearers of bad news
- A history of manipulated stats in other contexts
- WHO may have seen Potemkin villages
If this happens, will be a battle between censorship and on-the-ground reality.
- Censorship of Li Wenliang and bearers of bad news
- A history of manipulated stats in other contexts
- WHO may have seen Potemkin villages
If this happens, will be a battle between censorship and on-the-ground reality.
The case for something else:
- our knowledge is necessarily partial and mediated
- we don't have reams of direct, uncensored data
- maybe there's another possibility we haven't considered
Epistemological modesty is always good in situations like this!
- our knowledge is necessarily partial and mediated
- we don't have reams of direct, uncensored data
- maybe there's another possibility we haven't considered
Epistemological modesty is always good in situations like this!
