Why David Gauke is misreading Boris Johnson.
(Warning, may contain wishful thinking)
Thread (1/x)
(Warning, may contain wishful thinking)
Thread (1/x)
To keep their Brexit coalition together, Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings’ main task is not to deliver Brexit, but to keep on ‘owning the Remainers’. (2/x)
They did this successfully in 2019 even while crossing all of their red lines on the Northern Ireland protocol and throwing their allies in the DUP under the bus. (3/x)
How? First, by convincing their opponents they were serious about going for No Deal with theatrics like proroguing parliament. (4/x)
This provoked determined opposition, which meant that when they did produce a deal, it completely wrong-footed everyone who said they didn’t want one. (5/x)
In such a political climate, the details of any deal don’t matter so much to Brexit supporters. As long as it delivers on the one thing that matters - ‘owning the Remainers’. (6/x)
Even when Nigel Farage tried to point out that the deal was a betrayal of everything Johnson had promised, Brexiteers weren’t interested, because they care more about being on the winning side than the details of Brexit. (7/x)
So, what happens when we get the planned walk-out in June? The same dynamics will play out again. No Deal fear will be rampant. ‘Remainers’ will talk up the disaster that lies ahead. (8/x)
And then? Johnson can pull off the same trick all over again by producing a deal (largely on the EU’s terms) negotiated while everyone else is distracted by the fear of No Deal. (9/x)
That deal could even be very for a very soft Brexit indeed. As long as it makes the people the Brexiteers love to hate look foolish, that will be good enough to satisfy goal number one of ‘owning the Remainers’. (10/x)
Johnson can then gloat about proving the “doomsters and gloomsters” wrong. (11/x)
How could this plan fail? The logistics of ratifying a deal on the future relationship are much harder than for the withdrawal agreement so brinkmanship is more dangerous. (12/x)
Johnson could become a prisoner of his own logic. With a big majority, he no longer has the safety valve of knowing parliament will be able to thwart him. (13/x)
It’s possible that David Gauke is right about Johnson and Cummings’ strategy, but history tells to take their theatrics with a huge pinch of salt. (14/14)
