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Discussing the UK negotiating mandate for a US trade deal, a reasonable question to ask is why "best in class" in services doesn't mean very much. The answer was partly shown by this extract from leaked minutes of UK-US talks...
More broadly, services trade is hard to liberalise in trade agreements because restrictions are regulatory (licenses, qualifications, prohibitions) or related to public services (health, education) or to movement of people, and all are sensitive.
The UK may be better to seek specific agreements with countries on some of their services regulations than to expect significant liberalisation in a trade agreement.

More on services and FTAs can be found here (@uk_tpo) blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publicat…
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
At the risk of being unfair I'd suggest that 95% of those commenting on the UK government's decision to leave the EU Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) know little of global air safety.

If it helps that includes me. Hence, find experts. I gather its easier to blindly follow ideology.
My favourites are the "this was always going to happen" Brexiteers who on the basis of having read a website tell experts who have worked in a field for many years that what they want to achieve couldn't ever have happened.
And for the avoidance of doubt, no problem in questioning and challenging experts. Groupthink is always possible, and they may not be right. But criticising experts for groupthink when you're following your own ideological groupthink is pure and simple hypocrisy.
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
“As you would expect from an independent nation, we can’t be subject to the rules and laws made by somebody else"

Really? That could have some rather far reaching consequences...

theguardian.com/world/2020/mar…
If we can't be subject to rules and laws made by someone else then that's bad news for football fans, because we're going to have to pull out of FIFA. One of their most important rules is non-interference by governments in football... sportlicitors.com/sports-law-for…
"we can’t accept rulings in terms of court cases from the European court of justice or anybody else, any more than the US would" is another line. So does that mean we side with the US in rejecting the WTO appellate body? csis.org/programs/schol…
Read 10 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
From Global Britain to the Times calling for economic self sufficiency? Yes, I know, coronavirus, but as we've seen from the US you can invoke national security to claim all sorts of industries must be protected / state supported.
What I find particularly interesting is the lack of any strong competing narrative for international cooperation and trade. "Free trade" as preached by the US and UK bears little resemblance to that preached by the same parties five years ago - with little resistance.
If anything the argument in the UK is now mostly between those who would mostly isolate from both EU and US, and those who think we should just switch to the US side, as per this latest. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 4 tweets

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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Govt has published its negotiating mandate for a US trade deal.

By its own estimates, best case is it boosts GDP, “over the long run” by 0.16% or £3.4bn.

In economic terms that’s really negligible. Yet it would be the biggest FTA available.
Given all the political flak that comes alongside it, on environmental standards for example, or accusations over the NHS, given the benefits are so tiny, I wonder if it’ll ever happen.
Govt figures, over the long term:

🇺🇸 deal: GDP growth ⬆️ 0.16%
🇨🇦 style deal with 🇪🇺: GDP growth ⬇️ 4.9-6.7%
No deal with 🇪🇺: GDP growth ⬇️ 7.7- 9.3%

The latter figs represent truly enormous sums. Billions upon billions of lost growth. FTAs elsewhere v unlikely to compensate.
Read 4 tweets
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Thomas Cole
@ThomasHCole
NEW: The UK publishes its approach to negotiating the future #UK - #EU relationship gov.uk/government/pub… UK already saying that it wants a "Canada", "Korea" or "Japan" style relationship and wants to be seen as a "sovereign equal". None of this likely to fly anywhere...
Here is the document itself with some key bits highlighted (thread) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Point 5: "relationship between sovereign equals" is - although UK Gov entitled to say this - delusional. #UK much smaller than #EU and more exposed to EU economically than vice-versa. Sovereignty argument coming through strongly here.
Read 24 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Phase One #Trade Deal: Chinese Commitments

1/ To purchase at least an additional $200 billion in U.S. exports over the next 2 years (base: 2017).

2/ To do more to crack down on the theft of American technology and corporate secrets by its companies and state entities.
3/ To avoid currency manipulation.

4/ To bring forward the planned opening of its capital market.

5/ To set up a system to resolve conflicts over drug patents.

6/ To endorse an enforcement system.
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Phase One #Trade Deal: Full Texts En/Cn

➡ #China’s Ministry of Finance published both English and Chinese versions of the text - Statement
*Link (Chinese): bit.ly/3aivKcX
Read 28 tweets
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Russ
@RussInCheshire
Trade talks, a prediction:

UK - We don't like our deal
EU - Why not?
UK - We only get 95% of what we want
EU - It only gives us 95% too
UK - We want a new deal that gives us 100% of what we want
EU - But that means we only get 90% of what we want

1/13
UK - Yes, but we don't care. We hate you.
EU - Bit rude
UK - We elected people to go to your meetings specifically to say we hate you
EU - We noticed
UK - So we want a new deal, and we want the deal in 11 months or we cancel our existing deal
EU - Wait.. what?

2/13
UK - We've put it into law: you give us 100% of what we want in 11 months, or we walk away with 0% of what we want
EU - Erm... suits us!
UK - Wait, what?
EU - Perfect, do it. Ealk away
UK - No, hold on, wait: you have to negotiate, so Boris can win

3/13
Read 13 tweets
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Ben Shepherd
@BenShepherdEcon
1. An interesting thing about #services trade in the context of #Brexit is that we need to remember that services imports directly create jobs. Economists always like imports, but public debate focuses on jobs coming from exports. #Services are different. Let me explain why.
2. Under the GATS, when a foreign services company establishes a subsidiary in the UK and sells services to locals, that's an import of services for the UK under #Mode3. But to sell services to locals, the business needs to employ locals. So imports directly create jobs in the UK
3. Eurostat data shows that around 2.6 million service sector employees in the UK get their paychecks from foreign controlled companies. It's hard to get a break down of exactly how much of that is European, but it's far to assume that it's substantial.
Read 4 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
*KUDLOW EXPECTS U.S.-CHINA MEETING IN MARCH IN MAR-A-LAGO
*TRUMP, LIGHTHIZER ARE VERY CLOSE, KUDLOW TELLS CNBC
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #CHINA WOULD HAVE TO NOTE ANY FX INTERVENTION UNDER DEAL: KUDLOW - BBG
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *MNUCHIN SAYS #CHINA #TRADE TALKS INCLUDE 150-PAGE DOCUMENT - BBG
Read 819 tweets

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