Govt has published its negotiating mandate for a US trade deal.
By its own estimates, best case is it boosts GDP, “over the long run” by 0.16% or £3.4bn.
In economic terms that’s really negligible. Yet it would be the biggest FTA available.
By its own estimates, best case is it boosts GDP, “over the long run” by 0.16% or £3.4bn.
In economic terms that’s really negligible. Yet it would be the biggest FTA available.
Given all the political flak that comes alongside it, on environmental standards for example, or accusations over the NHS, given the benefits are so tiny, I wonder if it’ll ever happen.
Govt figures, over the long term:
🇺🇸 deal: GDP growth ⬆️ 0.16%
🇨🇦 style deal with 🇪🇺: GDP growth ⬇️ 4.9-6.7%
No deal with 🇪🇺: GDP growth ⬇️ 7.7- 9.3%
The latter figs represent truly enormous sums. Billions upon billions of lost growth. FTAs elsewhere v unlikely to compensate.
🇺🇸 deal: GDP growth ⬆️ 0.16%
🇨🇦 style deal with 🇪🇺: GDP growth ⬇️ 4.9-6.7%
No deal with 🇪🇺: GDP growth ⬇️ 7.7- 9.3%
The latter figs represent truly enormous sums. Billions upon billions of lost growth. FTAs elsewhere v unlikely to compensate.
Macroeconomic backdrop to all this is the very real possibility we could be facing a global recession before too long.
