THREAD: Why Remainers should be wary of immediately pressing to Rejoin the EU.
After 2 years where Remain consistently led over Leave, @BMGResearch has found that more people now want to stay out of the EU than rejoin it. BMG suggest this could be due to “status quo” bias 1/12
After 2 years where Remain consistently led over Leave, @BMGResearch has found that more people now want to stay out of the EU than rejoin it. BMG suggest this could be due to “status quo” bias 1/12
i.e. people are said to prefer things to stay the same rather than make changes. Between Jan (before we left) and Feb (after we left), a small number of Remainers decided that they’d now rather stay out of the EU, enough to give Leave a small majority. 2/12
If there’s a shift in attitude after one month, then its possible the status quo bias will become stronger as time goes on and more Remainers will make their peace with Leaving. But of course, that’s because the reality of Brexit hasn’t hit as we’re still in transition. 3/12
After transition ends there are 2 possible outcomes: a deep deal/extension, which minimises economic damage but the UK will be subject to some EU rules. OR a shallow deal/No Deal which will hit businesses, jobs and government revenue but Britain gains its “independence”. 4/12
The fact that this trade off exists hasn’t hit home yet. Rather than supporting rejoin, which does not currently have public support, Remainers should be making clear that there are difficult choices ahead and should be advocating a close relationship to the EU. 5/12
This won’t be easy. As @chrischirp and I found in June 2019, “Soft Brexit” was an unpopular option (despite the claims of Stephen Kinnock and others). Most Remainers simply preferred to Remain. 6/12
On the other side the vast majority of Leavers thought the disruptive effects of No Deal were exaggerated i.e. the UK could restore its sovereignty without any great economic cost, so most Leavers saw no point to Soft Brexit. 7/12
Boris’ deal was popular with Leavers because it also promised sovereignty with no price tag. But the era of “cakeism” is coming to an end; the true cost of having a distant relationship with the EU will be revealed sooner or later and the government knows this. 8/12
On top of the expected economic damage from Covid-19, British voters won’t appreciate further self-inflicted suffering as a result of No Deal or a bare bones deal. Remainers need to be collating evidence of the current and future damage that a hard Brexit will bring. 9/12
But we also need to be setting out the positives of a close relationship. @julianeccles had written an excellent roadmap based on co-operation not just on trade, but pandemic management, environmental issues and other issues. leftfootforward.org/2020/03/a-new-… 10/12
Before the referendum took place, if we had bothered to explain *why* countries give up some sovereignty in order to have the benefits of close alliances with their neighbours, then we probably wouldn’t have lost. 11/12
Maintaining a close relationship with the EU makes it easier to rejoin later but it also brings benefits in its own right. Persuading people of those benefits and highlighting the damage of Hard Brexit should be the immediate focus - particularly given the Covid-19 crisis. ENDS
