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25iQuiz: You are thinking about skiing tomorrow. Should you go and enjoy the day? Or should you marginally reduce the risk of a COVID-19 transmission that might cause hospitalization? Is the fact that you have a season pass and would just be supporting a gas merchant relevant?
Is this the right way to think about a decision to go skiing tomorrow?

"Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain." Buffett

Is an expected value analysis useful in making this decision?
"If you’ve got a low downside and a big upside, you go do it. If you’ve got a big downside and a small upside, you run away. The only time you have any work to do is when you have a big downside and a big upside.” Sam Zell
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More from @trengriffin see all

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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
In thinking about what is happening now, it is useful to read Mauboussin talk about complexity here: hbr.org/2011/09/embrac… As an example, economy is genuinely complex and not just complicated. There are second and higher order effects of just about everything in an economy.
"The only certainty is there is no certainty. With uncertainty, the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined, while with risk we know what that distribution looks like. [The effects of COVID-19 are] uncertain; roulette is risky…” What we know is we often can't know. Image
"Complex adaptive systems effectively obscure cause and effect. You can’t make predictions in any but the broadest and vaguest terms.”… “complexity doesn’t lend itself to tidy mathematics in the way that some traditional, linear financial models do.” Michael Mauboussin
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Tilray priced a $90.4M stock offering at $4.76 a share which included a warrant with an exercise price of $5.95 a share that investors can sell beginning 6 months after it is issued with a 5 year expiry. Canaccord Genuity is the sole book-running agent. news.google.com/articles/CBMid…
Canaccord Genuity was the "sole bookrunner" for which other deal in the past? google.com/amp/s/www.mark…
Can you explain how the warrants may impact existing shareholders in this financing? To get full credit for your answer, please show your work. google.com/amp/s/finance.…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
25iQuiz: who said:

"Mr. Market --Some days he gets very enthused, some days he gets very depressed.

Emotions are contagious, and emotions have no business in investing.”
"There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your positions aren't immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary."
"No one can tell you when these will happen. The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow. When major declines occur, however, they offer extraordinary opportunities to those who are not handicapped by debt." google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc…
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Related threads

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Abdul El-Sayed
@AbdulElSayed
A challenge w/ #COVID is that panic, itself, is contagious—an “infodemic.”

Without strong, evidence-driven leadership, local leaders default to the most stringent policies.

We’re seeing this at all levels—from banning travel from Europe to shutting down schools.

Thread:

1/
For example, School closures MAY be right, but we don’t have any evidence; & they could do harm:

1) healthcare workers who are needed on the front lines have to scramble for care

2) it forces seniors—at most risk—to care for kids.

3) tons of kids rely on school lunches.

2/
AND we know that kids actually have low risk of serious #COVID. Only 2.4% of all cases in one study.

Rather than make policy specific to #COVID, ppl are borrowing policy from other infectious epidemics, like flu, which is super deadly for kids.

3/
 washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03…
Read 7 tweets
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Ali
@aliostad
Day 8 of aggregating information on what goes on with #COVIDー19 in Iran.

Picking up from yesterday:

As stated before:

Finally authorities are putting Mazandaran province on quarantine: only fuel and food trucks are allowed. This late, its effectiveness will be limited.

The same authorities have had argued for quarantine to be "non-scientific" and "from middle ages".

Read 38 tweets
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Samuel V. Scarpino
@svscarpino
That's a tough question, but, if it helps, here's how I'm currently thinking about #COVID19 in the US.
To begin, it's always prudent to prepare, but not panic. I'd point you to @cmyeaton, @HelenBranswell, and @mlipsitch who are the rational experts (w/ consistent Twitter presences) that I look to for all things epidemic preparedness and this US Gov. site: ready.gov/pandemic
Regarding impacts, there's scant evidence that travel restrictions are feasible ways to prevent spread. That has not stopped governments from imposing them. Given the irrationality of our current admin, anything seems possible ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… & journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
Read 19 tweets
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EVent Horizon
@evdefender
Think someone is lying to you?

First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.

#coronavirus
The mortality rate they want you to report is the - 0 day rate: Today's Confirmed Death total minus Today's Confirmed Case total.

This has not varied outside of 1/10th of 1% in the last 5 prints.

#coronavirus
But even a minor adjustment of a few days in the mortality rate paints an entirely different picture

#coronavirus

Read 322 tweets
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Rob Rosenberger
@vmyths
@stuarthare @rik_ferguson Vice commander Col. Steve Orton set an appointment to tell me the news. "Here's your one-line mission statement," he said. "I want you to buy as many microcomputers as you possibly can, for as many offices in USAFE as you can possibly find, and I want you to cut ALL red tape..."
@stuarthare @rik_ferguson Col. Orton continued: "Now, the system will let you cut a little red tape. They'll tolerate a lot. But you're going to cut 100%. DON'T GET CAUGHT. Help units spend money. If they don't have any, find some for them and spend it. I want microcomputers everywhere in USAFE."
@stuarthare @rik_ferguson Col. Orton continued: "The system won't like you cutting all their red tape. They'll make you hurt worse than the Russians. SO DON'T GET CAUGHT. But if you do, and it's *not* your fault¹, come see me and I'll make the pain go away."
_____
¹Ethics / legalities
Read 50 tweets
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drum major for the drunken parade of life
@rahaeli
I see a lot of people tweeting along the line of "if I die in a mass shooting, drop my body in front of [the Republicans/the NRA et all]". It's echoing a famous photo in queer activism, and this thread is why it can sit really wrong with me. #queerhistory #TheGenerationWeLost
Here's the photo. It was taken in 1988, and the wearer of the jacket in question is David Wojnarowicz. He'd learned he had AIDS about a year before this photo was taken, when his long time lover died of the disease. (He himself would die four years later, in 1992.) Man wearing a jacket with
In 1987, when Wojnarowicz's lover Peter Hubar died of AIDS, the first antiretroviral drug used to treat AIDS, AZT, had only just been approved for human use. (It was not, and still isn't, a cure.) Its cost was astronomical and it was almost impossible to get.
Read 24 tweets

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