Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 1 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
The Cliff of Death in Euro banks has now broken. It is something I have repeatedly warned about. The ECB are going to have their hands full soon and will have to step in or the member states will end up nationalising the banking system. I doubt the Euro can continue to perform 1/
like this. It will weaken over time as the ECB has to print a LOT.

These are really troubling times and this crisis is rapidly turning int THE crisis. Be careful. Its still early days so Im just highlighting the potential risks.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Raoul Pal

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RaoulGMI see all

Profile picture
Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
All - I really appreciate everyone reaching out with thanks. I'm trying my absolute best to help as many people as possible by putting as much free stuff as I can (Twitter, LinkedIn, podcasts etc) but I just cant answer the sheer volume of people asking for advice,
nor can I give individual advice, only broad strokes.

The single best advice I can give is to pay the $1 trial for @realvision where I, and many people much smarter than I, give their best analysis.

We are even starting with the Real Vision Daily Briefing, an analysis show.
In a world where news is everywhere, serious analysis is what is really needed by everyone. It's going to be a bit clunky as we learn the ropes but it will help so many people get to grips with what is going on.

I will also be putting out an update for all RV members as well on
Read 15 tweets
Profile picture
Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
If OPEC/ROPEC etc don't do enough (hint: they can't) then oil is about to go into a world of pain. It is also going to ignite the junk bond market.
US Oil stocks - with ESG mandates leading to massive divesting, who is the buyer?
EU Oil Stocks - ditto. No buyer.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Goodbye, Cliff of Death. (EU Banks)
The EU Banks are going into a world they have never been before...
It feels like the entire world is about to break and I don't see what is going to stop it. Urgh.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Menelaos George Markakis
@M_Markakis
What does Lagarde’s comment that “We are not here to close spreads, there are other tools and other actors to deal with these issues” mean? Why are economists up in arms? A quick thread. #ECB #Eurozone #Covid_19 1/
These comments are seen to refer to the Outright Monetary Transactions Programme (OMT), which was part of former ECB President Mario Draghi’s pledge to do ‘whatever it takes’ to save the Eurozone. Under the #OMT, it was possible to purchase debt securities on the market. 2/
OMT would involve outright transactions in secondary sovereign bond markets aiming at “safeguarding an appropriate monetary policy transmission and the singleness of the monetary policy”. “Strict and effective conditionality” was required. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Vinay Gupta
@leashless
Alright. I finally got oriented. I know what (the harder core) among you really need: feasta.org/2010/09/27/thr… This is the State Failure work, the "hospitals are gone, we're on our own" work. This is the stuff we will need later. resiliencemaps.org/files/Dealing_… video diagrams are here.
You're also gonna need resiliencemaps.org/files/Dealing_… which uses this Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps model to dig down and manage the detailed planning work one needs to govern a whole society in an epidemic.

guptaoption.com/6.SPRS.php Corona is much less bad than bird flu by the way
The point of this work is to get *fully aligned* to the situation that State level services are going to fail at scale in a few weeks as the hospitals blow out in the face of the epidemic, and very plausibly there are severe supply chain disruptions.

This toolkit trains thinking
Read 20 tweets
Profile picture
pippocamminadritto
@guado77
...@bancaditalia CODADEPAJA
....e qui capite la CODADEPAJA
👇

👇
I prestiti TLTRO di #PopBari dal bilancio 2015..."anche a nome delle nuove controllate" chiesti ulteriori 516 milioni in 3 mesi...
Evento in stile
#ECB/@bancaditalia 's Ponzi Scheme... 👏👏
Read 317 tweets
Profile picture
Joumanna Bercetche
@CNBCJou
Mega #ECB thread- bear w me:)

Thursday’s mtg is shaping up to be an extremely important one

Most analysts expect #Draghi to tilt further dovish & indicate a “package of measures” for Sep but not act YET
Why wait? 1/ Fed first 2/ New projections in Sep 3/ Hv to agree on package
Reminder: what are ECB’s tools? ⚒:
- forward guidance (currently calendar based)
- rate cuts
- QE (sovereign, agencies, corporates)* I’ll come back to this point
- bond re-investments (ppl often forget this one)
So... What’s priced?
- Market is pricing in 3bps cuts July, 13bps in Sep

What about QE? *tougher to estimate
- Barclays compare mkt reaction post Whatever It Takes to post-Sintra (not really 🍎 to 🍏 but ok) : strong rally already in periphs ; look at BTPs & 5y5y infl 👀
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
George Colgrove III ⭐️⭐️⭐️
@colgrove11
1) What does an actor do?

Acts.

It’s clear, JFK Jr. played the role of inexperienced pilot. What did he do in training? He had to repeat lesson 11!

How is The Plan represented? The repeat of 11.

Coincidence? Nope!

Future proves past. He gave signals to us what he was ...
2) ... doing back then. By using clues of Q, R, 19 years seclusion, revealing in 20 years, 11 and 55. Is it a coincidence he entered the flight path of AA 1484? Was it a coincidence that the global timing of his flight coincided with EST afternoon timing of his fathers ...
3) ... assassination. Having the plane N737JH (with all its clues) follow him off runway 22 - the day of the assassination., very likely carrying off Carolyn and Lauren. Incidentally, N737JH is a 1977 Cessna 172N and N529JK is a 1977 Cessna 182Q (17 and 18). ...
Read 12 tweets
Profile picture
Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets

Trending hashtags

#EDIS #Now #Cairo #RegimeChange #Spain #Brexit #Covid_19 #Eurozone #soon #MADAGASCAR #BREXIT #Hypocrisy #YPG #Aleppo #DJ_F #DeirEzzor #EURUSD #church #ES_F #recession #Syrian #takfiri #Latakia #NOW #EUROSISTEMA

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!