1/5 Beware of “back-of-the-envelope” ✉️ calculations that try to predict how many ppl will get sick or die from #COVID19 #coronavirusoutbreak , especially when they’re done by ppl who have little experience in #infectiousdisease modeling. The current situation is not that simple
2/5 Many different factors may affect the spread of the #SARSCOV2 #coronavirus . These include different assumptions about the virus characteristics (which are still emerging), how much the virus has already spread (which is unknown since widespread testing is not occurring yet),
3/5 ...how much ppl are mixing, washing their hands, & practicing other infection control measures, and what the government & other organizations are currently doing & will do in response. These all can significantly affect the spread of the #COVID19 #coronavirus
4/5 That’s why our @PHICORteam & other experienced infectious disease modeling teams run many different scenarios when helping decision making. We show the range of what may happen & the likelihood of the different possibilities. This is #science & not fortune telling 🔮
5/5 If someone tells u definitively that a specific exact number of ppl will get sick or a specific number of ppl will die from #COVID19 #coronavirus , be skeptical about what that person is saying. True infectious disease modelers & scientists will rarely do that. #medtwitter
