Today is the 38th anniversary of the Hama Massacre. Hafez al-Assad's forces destroyed the city, a center of Islamist armed resistance & massacred thousands of civilians (estimates vary 10-40K). The massacre was followed by years of arrests of anyone linked to the Islamists. 
The massacre left an indelible mark on Syrian psyche. Discussing the massacre was prohibited, but news made it out and was discussed in private. The fate of the city, the tens of thousands of its detainees, terrorized Syrians into silence that they did not dare break until 2011.
In 2011, Hama witnessed the largest protests during the peaceful stage of the Syrian uprising, but the city never became involved in the armed insurgency due to the terrifying legacy of the 1982 massacre bit.ly/2On9LZ7
The aftermath of the Hama massacre can teach us a great deal about what comes next in Assad's Syria. Now all of Syria's rebellious areas experienced multiple massacres.
* Most of the population in regime areas has been terrorized into submission & will remain this way for years.
* Most of the population in regime areas has been terrorized into submission & will remain this way for years.
* The regime kept on arresting anyone with even a hint of a connection to the Muslim Brotherhood years later. We are seeing a similar pattern in areas that surrendered ("reconciled") to the regime. Arrests are daily across eastern & western Ghouta, Homs countryside, Daraa.
The Assad regime will never rule over a "normal" country. The regime is paranoid & clearly knows that large swaths of the population under its control are not loyal to it. We should expect continued repression. Continued mass executions of political prisoners.
The Hama massacre & subsequent repression also created many refugees. This diaspora did not play a role in the outbreak of the uprising, but did provide billions in humanitarian aid & became involved in the political games surrounding the war.
The new Syrian diaspora appears quite politically disconnected from the population inside regime areas, similar to the 1980s diaspora. One reason for this is that the regime arrests Syrians who simply placed calls abroad. Another is different perspectives/priorities.
Syrians in areas under Assad regime control are prioritizing survival above all else, even if it means foregoing any hopes for change, disengagement from politics & even becoming complicit in the regime's actions (joining pro-regime militias, informing on neighbors/friends).
Syrians in the diaspora want to see political change in Syria. Without the regime's downfall, they can not safely return.
Thus, is appears the diaspora vs. "inside" divide will likely persist & the diaspora's role will be limited to sending remittances.
Thus, is appears the diaspora vs. "inside" divide will likely persist & the diaspora's role will be limited to sending remittances.
For more on how Syrian society in regime areas has been terrorized into silence and coerced/lured into becoming complicit, read this brilliant piece bit.ly/2EXDe7v by @AlexGSimon
