Thread by @ngranati

@azeem @Peston @tomstandage And there are many more questions to ask!

@azeem @Peston @tomstandage You can't lament citizens electing presidents or PMs who do not believe in science & when you have the opportunity to explain the science and modelling which would go behind considering #herdimmunity as a "strategy" you don't disclose your assumptions & model #sciencematters 1/n

@azeem @Peston @tomstandage There is already a pre-print on @medrxivpreprint looking at "getting to zero" with #COVID19 via @RanuDhillon et al. You can see that Days to get there depend on percentage of herd immunisation, R0 and testing/isolation. What assumption is the @CMO_England making here 2/n

@azeem @Peston @tomstandage @medrxivpreprint @RanuDhillon @CMO_England .@AdamJKucharski paper in the @lancet has modelled early dynamics of transmission, based on data from China, and saw that #COVID19 R0 went from 2.35(95% CI 1.15-4.77) to 1.05 (0.41-2.39), but we know that the virus mutates has many strains from @trvrb work thelancet.com/action/showPdf…

@azeem @Peston @tomstandage @medrxivpreprint @RanuDhillon @CMO_England @AdamJKucharski @lancet @trvrb We also know from another coronavirus MERS that patient don't necessarily have lasting immunisation from a paper from 2017 looking at a sample of 6 patients and highlighted in a @nature article (insert below). What data for #COVID19 5/n

@AdamJKucharski
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/23…

@azeem @Peston @tomstandage @medrxivpreprint @RanuDhillon @CMO_England @AdamJKucharski @lancet @trvrb @nature At the moment when anti-vax movement is sadly gaining traction causing a resurgence of diseases which had 'gone to zero', it might be good to use this opportunity to have a debate when people are paying attention

A review article discussing herd immunity ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26683689

@azeem @Peston @tomstandage @medrxivpreprint @RanuDhillon @CMO_England @AdamJKucharski @lancet @trvrb @nature So let's have the assumption, let's have the model, let's have the debate.

#Sciencematters and so does #democracy

The two can be good bedfellows.

cc @tonycurzonprice

@azeem @Peston @tomstandage @medrxivpreprint @RanuDhillon @CMO_England @AdamJKucharski @lancet @trvrb @nature @tonycurzonprice @threadreaderapp unroll pls