@BridgfordMark You are right that “herd immunity” normally refers to circumstances where a large portion of the population is vaccinated and the remaining “herd are not and gain immunity through infection (sometimes with harm.).
However. As you point out there IS no vaccination.
However. As you point out there IS no vaccination.
@BridgfordMark So, until there is given this virus is likely to hang around not just for a few weeks/ months wave but keep returning, the only known way of getting immunity is by getting infected.
What they seem to be suggesting (& I am no virologist but these experts are) is they want to...
What they seem to be suggesting (& I am no virologist but these experts are) is they want to...
@BridgfordMark Try & expose the NOT vulnerable of v low risk people to the virus so they get just mild to moderate symptoms and gain immunity that way but gradually (the flattened curve) so that beds for those who really need it are not overwhelmed
That means protecting the vulnerable fiercely
That means protecting the vulnerable fiercely
@BridgfordMark Here is a 12 minute interview with Air Patrick Valance who Is an expert explaining more fully what they have been modelling - yes - after speaking with counties that were hit with SARS like Singapore.
That didn’t go into lockdown incidentally. They shut some schools if infected
That didn’t go into lockdown incidentally. They shut some schools if infected
@BridgfordMark That also was S Korea’s approach targeted closures (eg if the residential religious community to which over 80% of infections traced back.
But for this to be successful it really need high levels of compliance and caution from all of us. Otherwise we will have an Italy.
But for this to be successful it really need high levels of compliance and caution from all of us. Otherwise we will have an Italy.
@BridgfordMark They were unprepared for the sheer speed and scale of their infection which they now think was embedded in the country way back in early January. And as they pointed out they are a b physical country. The hugging and kissing and touching slowed late
@BridgfordMark The problem with fierce shut downs is the virus tends to rebound in a strong wave...and we want to avoid that in winter.
The longer and flatter the curve the more likely we will avoid a boomerang & buy time for better treatments, maybe virology test for immunity ..
The longer and flatter the curve the more likely we will avoid a boomerang & buy time for better treatments, maybe virology test for immunity ..
@BridgfordMark ...eventually a vaccine, but 18 months is the sort of timescale they are talking about. So maybe for Autumn 2021.
We routinely have coronavirus infections like colds. We get used to them. We don’t like them but they aren’t deadly like this one.
We routinely have coronavirus infections like colds. We get used to them. We don’t like them but they aren’t deadly like this one.
@BridgfordMark But we have to expect this one to hang around and return but the longer and slower the curve the more likely it is to weaken.
That is not guaranteed. But past virus suggest this is the more frequent outcome the more people who gain immunity
Time is really important
Preparation
That is not guaranteed. But past virus suggest this is the more frequent outcome the more people who gain immunity
Time is really important
Preparation
