Thread by @stevecheney

Super alarming. Breakout of “respiratory” related illnesses in NYC clearly related to #COVID19 viruses.

This is a thread about how to interpret the sudden appearance of respiratory infections in NYC and how that can serve as a model for the rest of the country. 1/9

This is nyc.gov data. Above is screenshot of today’s chart. You can see respiratory emergency visits going out of control—note the massive spike, also note this data is 3 days delayed. Track this daily going forward. 2/9

Site to access the data:

Click data point for “respiratory”.

You can also click “influenza like illness” - also spiking. Hospitals don’t know how to classify incoming patients without Covid-19 tests (but they know). 3/9

a816-health.nyc.gov/hdi/epiquery/v…

If unclear on escalation path, see documented patient journeys from respiratory to O2 needs. Plain language non-medical translation—escalation in ICU takes up to 4 weeks. Lack of ventilators and O2 will be acute. People die due to lack of equipment 4/9

docs.google.com/document/d/1Zx…

Capacity of Quest & Labcore is 1,000 patients a day. For entire nation. US is not South Korea. SK stopped super spreaders due to early testing, see #’s for young. US could follow Italy if we shut country. Italy flattening curve best model for EU/US. Chart via @AndreasShrugged 5/9

Zoom in view on data 👇🏻 We will know 3/19-20 what Mon 3/16 looks like (spikes are Mondays). Watch for a massive influx of respiratory. Increasing rapidly at rates (NYC) seen only during flu spikes. NYC has great data, this is gold! Nothing like this exists in the Bay Area. 6/9

Expect a complete guarded quarantine in NYC between March 23-30 if spikes (hope sooner). We should be building capacity of ventilators & O2 machines with the same mentality of WWII. Such a massive miss. Will be the nation’s focus next 2 months as we try for zonal containment. 7/9

Current infection estimates in US 150M Americans & 2M deaths. Massive unprecedented efforts will be made next 6-9 months to isolate youth from those 60+. Could be moratorium on travel for 60+. Connected experts pulling those 60+ out of elder care homes to home isolation now. 8/9

Thread. cc @balajis, @LizSpecht, @trvrb, @cmyeaton.

Please share these charts and NYC data for everyone to follow / monitor this week ~3/20. Monday 3/16 data is 3 days delayed and we will know soon. 9/9