Thread by @unseen1_unseen

People don't seem to understand a couple points about the China virus and why all of this effort is being made when it's only infected a very small % and killed even less than that small %. 98-99% survive it.

It's really simple to understand. There are three main reasons:

1. The reproduction data on the china virus. (R0)

The (RO) for the Covid-19 is high about 1.6-2.6 according to the Lancet or a avg of 2.1(RO)
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…

To put this in context the Spanish Flu had an (RO) of about 1.8 and other pandemics had an avg anywhere between 1.4-1.8 (RO) ) and non-pandemic seasonal FLU is less than 1.28(RO) according to the NCBI
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2518637…(IQR,six%20R%20values%20were%20%3C1.

As the above data shows this virus has the POTENTIAL to surpass the Spanish FLu in the amount of people impacted "if nothing is done". The lancet article estimates that when China placed travel restrictions it decreased the 2.1(RO) to around 1 or less.

In other words, these actions are being taken because the POTENTIAL of the contagion infecting large percent of the population is high if nothing is done. This is where you get the "scary" numbers of people talking about 60-70% of the population being infected.

The people pushing those numbers are correct but they leave out the part of "if nothing is done". As we have seen in China, South Korea, Japan, Europe and now the USA things are being done and that (Ro) has dropped and should continue to drop as long as active measures are used.

So, while the POTENTIAL is there for 60-70% of the population to be infected it won't happen because of the measures being taken. Humans tend to be that way when forced with worst case scenarios; they take steps to make sure it doesn't happen.

2. The Covid-19 has a high death rate compared to influenza. This isn't the Flu. Current estimates of the death rate is 1% or 10 times higher than the FLU. That number will most likely come down as more mild cases are found. South Korea is showing about a 0.7% DR(7times higher)

Since this virus is new, there is no human immunity to it. That will come as people get infected and overcome the virus but as of now there is no human immunity to it in the population. There is also no vaccine nor any medicine to help fight against it, yet. Those will come too.

3. Due to the above the china virus requires a large % of the infected to seek hospital care.

No immunity, vaccine, drugs and the fact that virus impacts the lungs, estimates are that 20% of the cases need some type of hospitalization. Remember 98-99% of the people who get this survive but that is with hospitalization (80% don't need hospitalization)

So the worst case is that the virus spreads to 60-70% of the population, the hospitals are overwhelmed and the death rate goes up causing widespread death in the older generations( those 50 and over). Of course all of this isn't going to happen because humans step in to avoid

...the worst case. This is where the fake media is failing the public. They are not giving you the information that where humans have stepped in, like in China/SK the (RO) decreased from pandemic level to less than normal flu levels. That when quarantines/travel limitations are

...adopted like Trump is doing the % of the population infected is not 60-70% but less than 1% and the death rate is lowered as those that need hospital care receive it. So you can't compare this with the Flu because the POTENTIAL of this virus to cause death and mayhem is

several times higher than the avg Flu season. However, That POTENTIAL will remain only a POTENTIAL as long as the proper steps are taken. As Of been saying for a month or so now. It's a concern, not a panic. those pushing the worst case without context like the fake media

...are causing a panic where there is no need but those saying it's not a concern and it's an overreaction are not factoring in the POTENTIAL if we do nothing. This china virus requires a measured response, not a panic. Closing down large gatherings and limiting contact

in infected areas is a smart move. Closing down the borders to limit the ability of this virus to spread unknowingly in the country is also a smart idea. Closing down the entire country isn't a smart move, it's an overreaction. Once testing is online most of the country can go

back to normal expect for large gatherings and the response can concentrate on as the infected clusters showing community spread. I see nothing wrong with people buying extra supplies to be prepared. Buying six cases of toilet paper is an overreaction.

President Trump and his administration have done a good job in explaining the context. the fake media have been terribly only pushing the worst case and then bitching that Trump isn't acting as if the worst case is upon us. It isn't and he shouldn't. Trump and his admin has

added appropriate actions as the status on the ground has changed. It's a constantly changing battle and it requires a constantly changing strategy dictated by the facts on the ground and so far Trump admin, state and most local officials are doing well in handling it.

Okay, now you have a different option instead of panic "we are all going to die" and "this is nothing it's not as big as the Flu or a common cold"

Hope this helps calm some people and to increase others concern so we all get to a stable state and can take the needed actions.