Thread by @ChaseSova

Some information starting to emerge on how #COVID19 #coronavirus could impact global #foodsecurity. Here is my personal take:

THREAD 1/16

Former @IFPRI DG, @ShenggenFan: "COVID-19 is a health crisis. But it could also lead to a food security crisis if proper measures are not taken.”

He's right.

Ebola, SARS, MERS all had direct & indirect negative impacts on food security.

See: ifpri.org/blog/preventin…

2/16

COVID-19 poses a great threat to nations with pervasive poverty & poor healthcare infrastructure. Most of world's hungry people live in these same places.

While the virus has been slow to spread to sub-Saharan Africa, its impact is imminent.

See: newscientist.com/article/223676…

3/16

As of March 16th, at least 25 countries in Africa have reported confirmed cases of COVID-19.

See: experience.arcgis.com/experience/685…

4/16

Africa’s 1.2 billion people face the highest percentage of undernourishment on the planet, affecting over 20% of the population.

COVID-19 has proved especially deadly for health-compromised individuals. This will include people suffering from severe malnourishment.

5/16

It is believed that the survival rate from Ebola was affected by what healthcare workers call “preceding nutritional status” or the baseline nutritional health of people affected by the virus.

We know this to be true of HIV patients as well.

See: apps.who.int/iris/bitstream…

6/16

Refugee populations in close proximity to one another and lacking adequate medical facilities are at especially elevated risk from COVID-19.

@UNHCR reports over 25m refugees today, many in camps in developing countries.

See: npr.org/sections/goats…

7/16

COVID-19 poses a great threat to nations lacking robust social safety nets. In the U.S., steps have already been taken to help kids maintain access to school meals.

These safety nets simply don't exist in exist in many developing countries.

8/16

In fact, less than 20 percent of people living in low-income countries have access to social protections of any kind.

See @WorldBank's work on this here: documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/427…

9/16

COVID-19 may cause breaks in food supply chains, food shortages and food price spikes.

During the Ebola outbreak in 2014, the price of some staple foods in West African increased by over 100 percent.

See: telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…

10/16

While food supplies & prices have remained stable to-date (staple prices are even down slightly), animal feed & high-value food product supply chains are being affected.

Broader supply breaks are likely.

See this from @RobVos26 & team @IFPRI: ifpri.org/blog/covid-19-…

11/16

The food price spikes of 2007/8 show that export restrictions, market speculation & panic behavior were, in part, responsible for the dramatic increase in global food prices in that period.

We are not protected against these measures today.

See: odi.org/sites/odi.org.…

12/16

In developing countries, many families already spend upwards of half of their income on food. Countries that rely heavily on imported food to meet demand—including sub-Saharan Africa—face disproportionate risk from supply chain failures.

13/16

COVID-19 may cause the global economy to slow or fall into recession, exacerbating extreme poverty and hunger.

@OECD has has dramatically revised their projections for global GDP growth this year.

See: nytimes.com/2020/03/02/bus…

14/16

We know from the latest #SOFI report that economic decline, poverty and food insecurity often accompany one another.

"Hunger has increased in many countries where the economy has slowed down or contracted."

See: docs.wfp.org/api/documents/…

15/16

Entering 2020, the number of hungry and malnourishment people around the world was already on the rise. COVID-19, risks frustrating the efforts of humanitarian and food security organizations seeking to reverse these trends.

Let's keep diligent.

END 16/16

All of this #COVID19 #foodsecurity information in one spot at @WFPUSA.

➡️wfpusa.org/articles/covid…

More on #COVID19 #foodsecurity from @WFP’s Chief Economist, Arif Husain (@WFPChiefEcon):

➡️ insight.wfp.org/how-to-minimiz…

Will keep these coming on this thread:

Another good resource on #COVID19 and global #foodsecurity from @USAID's Bureau for Resilience and Food Security.

➡️agrilinks.org/post/coronavir…

As Malaysia restricts travel from #COVID19, Singapore considers its #foodsecurity prospects. Some panic buying at supermarkets.

The country, which imports 90% of its food, has stockpiled food for three months and has diversified its trading partners.

➡️straitstimes.com/singapore/envi…

Despite the title of this piece, reasons to be optimistic about #COVID19 & #foodsecurity in sub-Saharan Africa:

1) Youngest population on earth
2) Many rural, sparsely populated areas
3) Not transmitted through livestock
4) High temps may slow virus

➡️sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/t…

The average American has three days of fresh food reserves—"we are all only ever nine meals from anarchy.”

The perils of our "just enough, just in time" global food system in the face of #COVID19 via @ConversationUS

➡️theconversation.com/coronavirus-th…

“Authorities [in Venezuela] were stopping producers from delivering food across the whole country, and so far the government had not issued them with any sort of permission to pass through checkpoints unhindered.”

#COVID19 #foodsecurity

➡️ reuters.com/article/us-hea…