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Initial claims for unemployment insurance up by 70,000. That may not sound like much, but (1) it's data from last week — next report will be much worse (2) it's actually worse than any week in the Great Recession 1/
Reports from the states say a tsunami of claims has already started. And searches on Google Trends tell the same story 2/
Just three weeks ago Kudlow declared the virus "contained" and added that the economy is "holding up nicely" 3/ cnbc.com/2020/02/25/lar…
And another manufacturing index shows us falling off a cliff 4/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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More from @paulkrugman see all

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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
It seems to me that a lot of the economic discussion of Covid impacts and policy response is still using the wrong metaphors and models. For example, we keep hearing about "stimulus" bills when that's not mostly what they are. So, some thoughts 1/
My stylized model of the economy right now looks like this: there are two sectors, essential (E) and nonessential (N). What's mainly happening is that we are — rightly — shutting down N to limit social interaction and flatten the curve. 2/
This isn't a conventional recession; it's more like a medically induced coma, where you temporarily shut down much of the brain's activity to give it a chance to heal. But doing this requires that we provide life support 3/
Read 11 tweets
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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
In many ways the coronacession is very different from earlier slumps. Still, as Adam Tooze says, "much of what’s happening in financial markets today seems incredibly familiar to anyone who spent a lot of time in the 2007-’08 story and its aftermath." 1/ vox.com/2020/3/28/2119…
And as in the 2008 crisis, my inbox is full of people warning that the Fed's efforts to stabilize markets amount to massive money-printing and will lead to runaway inflation; also that budget deficits will bankrupt us. So a bit of wonkery on why that's all wrong 2/
On the monetary side, you really shouldn't think of the Fed as "printing money." What it's really doing is recycling money that is trying to flee into safe havens, with potentially disastrous effects 3/
Read 8 tweets
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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
America's response to the coronavirus is the worst in the world, which is shocking and has a lot to do with a leader who is completely unfit, temperamentally and intellectually, for the job 1/
On the other hand, in some ways it's a continuation of our long-term terrible health performance, with life expectancy lagging ever farther behind other advanced countries even before the pandemic 2/
The thing is, there really is a sort of uniquely American way of death, rooted in extreme inequality, a weak social safety net, anti-intellectualism, tendency to blame all problems on The Other, etc. And now it's being laid bare for all to see 3/
Read 4 tweets

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Per Bylund
@PerBylund
The #coronavirus #pandemic/#panic has already fundamentally changed our society and #economy. We're already seeing #quarantines along with #unemployment, #bankruptcies, and empty shelves in stores. And we see how entire states are being shut down as government asserts they know
which businesses are 'essential' and thus may operate and which are 'non-essential' and therefore forced closed. Whereas this obviously will cause enormous economic problems, let's take a look at what is actually going on. We are not only in the midst of a virus pandemic, but
also a major economic shift: from industry to information. Such shifts can happen smoothly, but government's actions are forcing the shift and disrupting all industries--uprooting the traditional employment model and creating a gig and work-from-home economy. Part of this is the
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FranchiseKF
@FranchiseKF
Week 2 SEC & ACC Thread:
Wake @ Rice (+19/58.5) Two played last year and Wake won 56-24. Deceptive scoreline though. Only 414-370 yardage edge for Wake, but 6.8-4.9 YPP edge. 137 plays so pace wasn't great, mainly due to Rice hogging it & Wake hitting big plays. Dortch 4 TDs w Hartman at QB n first start
Wake now has better QB and realize what capable of in air. They were still 17-20-243-4-1 last year, but that should be higher this year. Wake won great battle last week. Defense still rough, run game is bleh, but they are gonna go fast and stress teams via air and w QB run game
Read 84 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Not clear how successful. Trump had a 38% favorability rating on Election Day 2016, per the exit poll, much worse than Mitt Romney's 48% in 2012. But Hillary was at 43% as compared to Obama's 53%. His success came mostly from running vs. a candidate almost as unpopular as he was.
Sure, the story is more complicated than that. Clinton's low favorability rating is not exogenous from Trump's strategy. Also, the Electoral College obviously mattered a lot and gives greater influence to white working-class voters and strategies that cater to them.
But "#Actually, Trump's strategy of stoking racial resentment is #smart politics!" isn't a great take. The evidence for it is murky, and became murkier after the GOP/Trump's bad midterm in 2018.

Reporters and pundits shouldn't go around spouting it like it's a savvy take.
Read 3 tweets
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Dhrumil Mehta
@DataDhrumil
We're tracking cable news mentions of 2020 Democrats 📺📊. Here's the latest:

Mentions of 2020 candidates were down overall last week ⬇️, but mentions of Pete Buttigieg went up ⬆️.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/which…

You can download the #data as well! github.com/fivethirtyeigh…
We get the data from the @gdeltproject's Television API, which uses data from @TVNewsArchive. You can browse the archive for yourself if you want to watch the individual clips: archive.org/details/tv
Or if you prefer to see the data as charts, check out the GDELT's Television Explorer blog.archive.org/2016/12/20/new…

made by @kalevleetaru
api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/summary…
Read 4 tweets
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SaraKateW
@SaraKateW
I’m watching S01E01 of Game of Thrones and there’d better be fisting.
This is some Dungeons and Dragons ass shit.
Jamie Lannister can get it.
Read 850 tweets
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#trade #tradewars #USA
“No country presents a broader, more severe threat to our ideas, our innovation, and our economic security than #China,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in a statement.
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
#trade #tradewars
“If we can open up China and make it fair, for the first time ever — this should have done years ago by other presidents but it wasn’t — I am very much willing to do it. But China very much wants to make a deal,” he said.
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
#trade #tradewars
🤔
“There’s no mass movement, there’s no huge thing. We’re not on the cusp of a deal,” Kudlow told CNBC. He added that the administration had not seen any new offer from #China.
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Read 554 tweets

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