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“Dominic Cummings became convinced that Britain would be better able to resist a lethal second wave...if Britain developed ‘herd immunity’ “

Hold. This. Government. To. Account
Cummings needs to go before a select committee ON MONDAY to answer to this. If true, it is not just a catastrophic misjudgment on the part of a wayward aide that in all likelihood will cause 1000s extra deaths. It is a catastrophic misjudgement of Johnson to invite him into govt
‘At a private engagement at the end of February, Cummings outlined the government’s strategy. Those present say it was “herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”.’
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More from @carolecadwalla see all

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Carole Cadwalladr
@carolecadwalla
These are the numbers from Wales. They are routinely left off national reporting but numbers from Gwent (Aneurin Bevan health board) are shocking & far in excess of London & Cardiff & Vale only slightly behind
Meanwhile, the whole of Wales has a grand total of 176 critical care beds

bbc.com/news/uk-wales-…
And always at this time, I remind you that no national newspaper has a single journalist based in Wales (if this is no longer true please make yourself known)...
Read 3 tweets
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Carole Cadwalladr
@carolecadwalla
I just really want to understand why UK has uniquely decided to disregard WHO guidance on self-isolation for 14 days. @CMO_England, you must have reasons. Can you please set them down for us so we too can understand?
In interest of openness & transparency, can you please explain rationale behind this guidance @CMO_England? In cases where COVID-19 is confirmed, are people non-infectious by day 7? What is the evidence base for this advice currently being followed by 1000s of people around UK?
Govt strategy tests upon public complying with govt guidelines. It’s why it’s so vital that govt is transparent about what it is asking of people & why. But I can’t find the studies that suggest infection has resolved by day 7. Can you please help illuminate?
Read 3 tweets
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Carole Cadwalladr
@carolecadwalla
MPs, please read this.

Coronavirus Bill in parliament tomorrow. This is a brief from a regulatory lawyer who says it opens up possibility of *significant abuse of power*. Apart from anything else it’s going to make protest illegal. It really really needs your scrutiny
Summary:
I’m very interested in how you rustle uo an entire parliamentary bill of hundreds of pages at a week’s notice. Whose work is this? When did work on it begin? Why was this considered necessary but not eg tellling us to wash our hands or avoid Cheltenham races?
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Gabriel Vanca
@GabrielVanca
Imperial College report: "There is no easy policy choice. [The alternative to the govt's plan] carries enormous social and economic costs which may have significant impact on health...and mortality might still be high."

The media: The govt got its whole plan totally wrong.
Imperial College report: "[The govt's strategy] might reduce peak healthcare demand by two thirds and deaths by 50%.]"

The media: The Government is not taking any action.
Imperial College report: "[The alternative to the govt's plan] will take 18 months or more. It might not protect those in the risk categories. Social and economic costs will be enormous."

The media: The govt got its strategy fundamentally wrong.
Read 18 tweets
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Yascha Mounk
@Yascha_Mounk
Britain is now an extreme outlier in how little it is doing to slow the spread of corona.

Here’s why Boris Johnson’s “cunning plan” could be so dangerous – and why the reassuring things that British politicians are telling the public are likely wrong.

[Thread.]
In 2009, Boris Johnson joked:

“A gigantic fish is eating all your constituents and [the mayor from Jaws] decides to keep the beach open. It turns out he was wrong. But it remains that he was heroically right in principle.”

Now, Boris is staking British lives on that principle.
Johnson’s strategy in a nutshell:

• Spread of corona now inevitable.
• Try to get to herd immunity quickly.
• Infect a lot of younger people so older people will be less likely to get it.

For more background, read this explainer and this thread 👇.

Read 25 tweets
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Klaus Peper: BenedictusΧριστοῦVIcarius
@folcmar
1/ I have corrected my assumption of herd #immunity being achieved at 70% of population to 60%. Extrapolation was made under further simplified assumptions:
* full disclosure of all cases,
* unchecked spread,
* maximum mixing
Estimated time course of #COVID19 cases in #Germany:
2/ Extrapolation of daily #COVID19 cases in Germany:
3/ Estimated daily hospital admissions of #COVID19 cases in Germany under assumption of 5% hospitalisation rate. Note: Germany has 500,000 hospital beds.
Read 11 tweets
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Graham Kings
@GrahamRKings
This @thetimes article on Dominic #Cummings is Cummings’ & #No10’s spin to rehabilitate him after recent media attacks. It may work, because, typically, it conceals well its aim... However, it reveals also worrying traits. See below 1/several...
thetimes.co.uk/article/domini…
1. #Cummings was mentored at #Oxford by Prof Norman Stone. theguardian.com/books/2019/jun…
2. He had ‘an unsuccessful spell setting up an airline in post-communist #Russia.’
3. Cameron described him as a ‘career psychopath’.
4. His wife is @spectator writer Mary Wakefield. 2/several
5. He deliberately got himself, wearing T-shirt & jeans - in famous photo of #Johnson being welcomed by Sir Mark Sedwill in No10.
6. He is not a back-room operator. He loves the limelight. [hence the film ‘The Uncivil War’ and this article...] 3/several
Read 5 tweets
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Nick Weil
@nick_weil
1/ BASED GRASSLEY

"...an entirely different kettle of fish."
2/ On election night 2016, Chuck Grassley must have looked back at the previous year and considered how wild it was just up to that point. A surprise opening on the supreme court put Grassley and Mitch McConnell in the position where they refused to take up the Garland nomination
3/ That decision led to much heartache among the democrats and castigation aimed directly @ Grassley

Not to mention the Clinton email saga which he played an oversight role in and all against the backdrop of a nasty presidential campaign season. Nevertheless, Iowa re-elected him
Read 60 tweets
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Robert #Resist Sandy
@frodofied
Democrats protesting other Democrats over fucking climate change legislation that even when passed will never make it through the Senate in any form and even if it did would earn an instant veto by Trump.

I mean...

1/
This really makes us look like a unified, reasonable party with our priorities in order that Americans, looking to shed the chaos of Trump, should turn to as the alternative.

2020 is going to come fast @Ocasio2018. We need to establish trust with the electorate.

2/
If we don't we might be asking voters to choose between a chaotic mess that they've possibly grown inured to, and one that looks like a pile of bills flying at them in an uncertain / broken economy.

THAT'S the way Trump or whomever is representing the Republicans then, wins.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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