@EricRWeinstein I think I would like to discuss this in earnest, if you'd be open to it. I'm not a foreign policy or econ expert but I think outsiders like myself maybe should still bring up the issues here.
@EricRWeinstein 1. Obviously quarantine works against infectious disease. It is unpleasant but in sufficiently bad crises, like now, it makes sense. It isn't xenophobic in this case. The US should have done it sooner.
@EricRWeinstein 2. the broader issues under the umbrella of "nationalism"/"internationalism" are trade and immigration. so let's talk about that.
@EricRWeinstein 3. Trade: I'm basically convinced that a.) the *immediate* cause of the 2000-present sharp drop in US manufacturing jobs was due to opening trade with China, and b.) that countries that get their "heavy industry" (steel production etc) from abroad are sacrificing long-run growth.
@EricRWeinstein 4. I blogged about these two points here. srconstantin.wordpress.com/2016/11/19/ind…
@EricRWeinstein 5. There's also an efficiency-robustness tradeoff, always and everywhere. Domestic production and stockpiles are robust against disasters; global supply chains and just-in-time inventory are cheaper but more fragile, all else equal.
@EricRWeinstein 6. All that said, I'm *really* not convinced that slapping tariffs and trade restrictions would "force" US manufacturing to become stronger and more robust. Maybe we'd just get poorer. It's a gamble with everyone's livelihood. Deregulating industry is safer, economically.
@EricRWeinstein 7. You *notice* it when tariffs go up. My landlord is going out of business because of tariffs. An important deal for my company fell through because of the tariffs. We *feel* that shit. Now, that's not an argument that tariffs are *net* bad, but a lot of people forget.
@EricRWeinstein 8. I've never understood the immigration thing, truly, I don't. I just don't get it. Immigrants are good. I can't do justice to the econ case better than @bryan_caplan already did. I just...I'm confused. You're obviously neither stupid nor xenophobic. You're Jewish. WHY.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 9. My best model of your position is some kind of Straussian-cynical thing, like "Chinese grad students are obviously not going to be personally powerful in US society, because they're foreign, so this diminishes the power of scientists as a class, relative to other classes."
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 10. like, maybe "by *selectively* being more immigrant-friendly in STEM fields, the actual effect is to weaken the bargaining power of the American STEM bloc relative to other political blocs." LMK if this is a mischaracterization?
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 11. my gut reaction to that is "if you're being singled out to be held to a high standard, you should advocate raising the standards for everyone else, not lowering them for yourself." Sure, end *selective* STEM immigration -- by allowing more immigration everywhere else!
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 12. Now squishy shit. "Globalist"/"internationalist" culture shit.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 13. I hope you understand why I go "aaaaaaaaaaa" when people go "ew, these people who lend money, go from place to place, are into spreadsheets and abstractions, and don't follow our martial/socially-conservative national traditions." You see, I *like* living.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 14. When I hear the word "bugman" I start fantasizing about finally having enough time in my schedule to go to the gun range on the regular. *I like living.* This is kinda important.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 15. So, ok. The international liberal order was set up in 1945 and it was meant to promote US interests. Nobody talks about that now except foreign countries that oppose the US, and Yarvin, but it was. "Internationalism" is a method of maintaining US global hegemony.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 16. Internationalism has bad points and good points. The bad part: lots of war. The good part: sorry but a lot of American values are good actually. I *want* girls to get to leave home and go to school or work and keep their money in their pocket and have a room of their own.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 17. All that Disney-princess stuff. "I wanna be where the people are". "How far I'll go." "I can show you the world." "There must be more than this provincial life." It's ... poignant. It's a real thing. And it's a very American-universalist thing.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 18. I *know* the other perspective that this is wrecking traditional cultures. I see that other perspective *constantly.* I'm conflicted about it; it still causes me pain. I'm just laying out that there's something lovely about Western-universalist liberalism.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 19. But, ok, the international order is crumbling. Do I like what's filling the vacuum? I do not. Is Putin's Russia a nice place to live? Xi's China? Orban's Hungary? Modi's India? aaaaaa. I'm not sure what to think exactly but I think "aaaaaa" is justified.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 20. The "other team" -- team "listen to the experts", team CDC, team WHO -- yes, they have totally flunked the COVID-19 test. They are sclerotic and authoritarian-submissive and they are totally clueless. Two sides of a global conflict can both be bad.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 21. If someone asks you "who do you like better, Hitler or Stalin?" the right answer is "neither, asshole."
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 22. Just because nationalists are agentic doesn't mean you want to be on their team. Pay attention, sometimes they have a point, but *real life is not a multiple choice test.* You don't have to say "ok these are the coalitional options, I'll pick one of the above."
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 23. This whole "we need a new elite" thing -- hm. yes and no. "Be skeptical of the old institutional elite" -- yes, 100%, they get things wrong, and quite a few people who aren't part of it get things right. But anoint a new elite? Hm. Lots to think about there.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 24. Who's to anoint this new elite? Not the old elite, that's for sure. Is it a different existing power bloc? A lot of the most easily visible ones are...very. very. bad. news. very bad news *particularly* for Jews, if not now, then eventually. And as I said, I *like* living.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 25. Now if you want good ideas to be put into practice, obviously the idea guys need to sync up with some money and power guys. (Or be ideas-and-money-and-power guys all at once.)
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 26. I don't know who all the right alliances are. I'm not high enough on the totem pole to have a good view of the landscape. Willing to be humble about that.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 27. Wholeheartedly agree that if you see someone who's doing an awesome job at response to COVID-19 that's a strong signal of a potential ally. It's a very clear example where humanitarian benefit and practical competence intersect.
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 28. The heuristic that seems underrated to me is to remember to build alliances sideways and down, not just up. The good news about contrarian insights is that often they mean effective action is cheaper than the mainstream narrative says. What can you do without being anointed?
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 29. Also, there are individuals, not just coalitions/blocs. There may be no pre-existing bloc aligned with what you want; but there may be individuals each aligned with a part or all of it. (And new blocs can be built. Real life is not multiple choice.)
@EricRWeinstein @bryan_caplan 30. This isn't a politics poem but it's kind of a propos. Taught me to appreciate what Freud gave the world. poets.org/poem/memory-si…
