"BIN There, Done That"
Here's the link: morganstanley.com/im/publication…
I read it, but you should too!
Here's a thread breaking down my favorite thoughts and graphs ...
Mauboussin identified a few factors for divergences in information between varying forecasters:
- Discovering new information
- Speed & accuracy of updating views (i.e., Bayesian)
- Weighting of information
- Being better with signal complexity
Key features of noise not shared by the other two (B or I):
- Noise isn't systemic
- You can calculate it without knowing the right answer