Thread by @StillDelvingH

Pesky maths
As a @UniofOxford study seems to claim herd immunity could have been achieved already with 33m UK people infected, all the other data and basic calculations dare come in the way of a comforting theory
(At best a few hundreds of thousands deaths missing here)

https://twitter.com/stilldelvingh/status/1242545518217224193

(I'm sorry I meant the commercial arm of @uniofoxford)
(Will theory be used to develop a revolutionary concept here as well?)
bluewatervaccines.com/our-team

(more here)

https://twitter.com/StillDelvingH/status/1242558675711078400?s=20

(Go ahead call me cynical)
Wide-testing to prove/disprove the theory could allow research commercialization arm of Oxford to gather important data that the US firm they partner with could use to produce a vaccine as that's what they do -an under exclusive license vaccine that is.

So "the UK govt has bought 3.5m antibody tests for coronavirus" -not to know whether or not someone is sick, but to know whether or not someone has been sick " – and it is assumed that, if so, they will be immune"?
Call me stupid but why no sick ppl tests?
theguardian.com/world/2020/mar…

"That means an army of doctors, paramedics, &others who have been identified as immune might be able to take the lead in the fight on the ground against the virus w/no worry for their safety *even if the shortage of PPE continues*"
Aaaah handy savings
thedailybeast.com/can-coronaviru…

Update on the 3.5m tests -that
1/ are to be validated in Oxford -no more info
2/ Apparently could not just say who recovered from the virus, but also who has it. (Not quite what the other article said?)
That sounds great -mass testing.
A few questions tho:
theguardian.com/world/2020/mar…

“NHS doctors and nurses with symptoms will know immediately whether they have – or have recovered from – Covid-19, enabling them to get back to work sooner.“
I probably misunderstood something, as I don’t get the “recovered with symptoms“ concept.
(Probably just me)

“NHS workers or anyone else will be able to know if they have had the virus and are therefore immune, which means they could resume their normal lives, no longer having to work from home or keep their distance from other people.“
Well that sounds great -immune means immune right?

”It is widely thought that having Covid-19 makes people immune to the disease or that if they get it a second time, they do not transmit it“
1/ “widely thought“ is quite a gamble. What if the virus mutates as it did already?
2/ people who get it a second time -do they survive it?

What if people get it a second time because they’re not immune to a possibly mutated new version? How can we be sure they don’t transmit it? Shouldn’t there be like at least like one study on all that before to start talking about calling lockdown off?

Don’t get me wrong: mass testing is the way to go.
I just think it’s a little early to jump off to drastic conclusions in the absence of relevant data.
#covid19 just killed a 21-yr-old and a36-yr-old woman considered not to be a serious case. Too early for the end of #StayAtHome

”So if someone offers you a COVID-19 test that looks like a pregnancy test that uses blood from your finger, just say NO. These tests.. can give you either a false sense of security if it is negative or give you a positive result even if you are not sick.”
esquiremag.ph/life/health-an…