March 26 COVID Update: Talked to the place in the world with the fastest growing cases. Two big launches— 1) doing something about vents & 2) new portal for people during the pandemic. More on testing. Some on saving lives. New projections?
Coming soon. Follow if interested.1/
Coming soon. Follow if interested.1/
The place in the world with the most rapid growth in COVID-19....New Orleans. They shut the party down too late.
Daily growth rate is 67%. 2/
Daily growth rate is 67%. 2/
They currently estimate they need 600 ventilators in the next couple of weeks. Relative to NY, I view this as good news IF we rally.
These things can move from one place to another on trucks. Since this will wave across the country let’s help them. 3/
These things can move from one place to another on trucks. Since this will wave across the country let’s help them. 3/
We can’t make vents fast enough to keep up with demand. So what are we going to do?
Tonight by midnight, we plan to launch: project95.com/vents in concert with FEMA. 4/
Tonight by midnight, we plan to launch: project95.com/vents in concert with FEMA. 4/
What’s the idea? If anyone has a vent they want to lend or sell in state or out, they can do so on the website and FEMA tells us they will come pick it up.
Shout out to the projectn95 team. Volunteers working in record time. Saying no to nothing. 5/
Shout out to the projectn95 team. Volunteers working in record time. Saying no to nothing. 5/
They won’t meet all demand but for every mask and vent they can move, they are saving lives. 6/
The US has now become the leading country in the world for confirmed cases, surpassing Italy (who is slowing) 500,000 worldwide, 80,000 in the US. And I suspect we have the highest unconfirmed cases by a lot due to lack of testing.
We’ve passed 1000 deaths in the US. 7/
We’ve passed 1000 deaths in the US. 7/
And people are dying at a much more rapid pace than the flu even though we are just getting started in much of the country. 8/
(If you clicked the link for vents because you thought it was live, sorry for the confusion. Target is by midnight and need info from FEMA. Wanted the link for people who see the thread later.) 9/
Here’s some good news & more minor bad news. The good news is social distancing is DEFINITELY working. The bad— you have to look at a nested thread to see the data— and I hate nested threads. Sorry.10/
On balance, I’m sure you’d agree that’s MOSTLY good news. 11/
And the UK is finding the same thing. #StayHome works! It slows down cases and spares our health care workers. It gives scientists time. It saves lives. 12/
It saves a lot of lives. Here’s how I think about it. If you’re infected & don’t know it (highly likely) and you infect the R0 average of around 2.3 (and that’s being careful), what happens? 13/
After 10 cycles, 4142 people are infected. (And my 18 year old did that math & used a calculator so it’s unimpeachable). The case fatality rate is a mystery. Germany with a lot of testing is .4. Italy looks like high single digits. With overcrowded hospitals, it multiplies. 14/
Bill Gates says it’s around 1%, but could be 3% with lack of vents. Let’s say 1%.
So if you infect 4142 people, that may cause 41 deaths. You’ll never know because there is no contract tracing. Hold that thought— even if you disagree that’s the exact number. 15/
So if you infect 4142 people, that may cause 41 deaths. You’ll never know because there is no contract tracing. Hold that thought— even if you disagree that’s the exact number. 15/
Bill Gates says he expects the proper amount of socialization we have to endure from here to really beat the virus is between 6-10 weeks. I’m choosing this over Trump’s analysis of “Easter.”
A hardship no doubt about it.16/
A hardship no doubt about it.16/
If someone told me if I would be able to save 40 lives if I stayed home, missed school, lost income & missed socializing for 6-10 weeks, I would do it in a second. Everyone would.
If it was 4 lives or 1– someone’s mom— we would. For many I know it’s much harder than for me.17/
If it was 4 lives or 1– someone’s mom— we would. For many I know it’s much harder than for me.17/
My point is this— a reporter mentioned how scary this is today. But it’s also empowering. I’ve never had the ability to save 40 lives & impact 40 families like this.
Instead of sitting home feeling like this is pointless, I think about the prize of our sacrifice. 40. 18/
Instead of sitting home feeling like this is pointless, I think about the prize of our sacrifice. 40. 18/
My buddy @deray just made that a whole lot better by launching the portal we need #whileathome. It has great things on it but I know the stuff that’s coming. All volunteer built. 19/
whileathome.org
whileathome.org
There’s a counter movement now— Dan Patrick is TX, the governor of MS, some in certain media, Larry Kudlow pushing to reopen everything while we are becoming the epicenter of the world, while hospitals are overloaded, before we have testing, while we could be saving 40 lives.20/
It would be easy to dismiss these people as cranks. But they are speaking to what a lot of people want to hear. And of course they can’t see the 40 lives they could save.
People need to see a path out
& there is one. It requires some patience.21/
People need to see a path out
& there is one. It requires some patience.21/
I sent a letter to all 50 governors today outlining the path in 3 phases. See below.
Later in the letter I invited 3 states the opportunity to become pilot states 4 distributing digital thermometers across the state 2 start to measure more precisely how & where the virus was.22/
Later in the letter I invited 3 states the opportunity to become pilot states 4 distributing digital thermometers across the state 2 start to measure more precisely how & where the virus was.22/
The idea is to try to create 3 South Koreas with rampant testing, monitoring, contract tracing & fever tents & isolation as necessary.
Finding the quickest path back to economic & social life & setting a path for other states. 23/
Finding the quickest path back to economic & social life & setting a path for other states. 23/
This follows a letter sent to every governor and top 50 mayors about last week and to the Administration last night which will be summarized in @USATODAY. 25/
To get there we need testing capabilities far above what they are now. My latest estimate is we are approaching 200,000/day. And moving closer to at home capable tests & antibody tests (yesterday’s thread). 26/
Oh yeah. And my mom’s apparently on Twitter now.
Not sure what can be done about that. Can I report it?
/end
Not sure what can be done about that. Can I report it?
/end
Messed up! It’s projectn95.com/vents
URL is projectn95.com/vents
