Thread by @ASlavitt

March 27 COVID Update: Coming after dinner.

A few gems today. Things I can happily reveal. Today is actually a lot about some of the best things we’re doing. The good news will lag what we see on TV. I was downbeat 2 weeks ago before most and am more upbeat today.1/

You’ve heard it 1000 times but it’s still true. It’s going to get worse before it gets better. It’s true no matter what because of the lag time between onset-symptoms-hospitalizations (almost a month), latent government action, and our lack of preparation. 2/

So when good things happen, it doesn’t meet what we see on TV. That’s why I’ve been trying to spend so much time on “leading indicators.”

But the signs of the future are there if you look. 3/

(To be fair, I spend almost every waking hour working on this so even if I’m not that quick I will figure it out. One thing I learned leading the Healthcare.gov turnaround is everyone will return your call. Thankful to all the smart people that help figure things out.)4/

So let’s start with the fire at hand because it’s not going away. Hot spots are still hot. Nurses and docs are scared & without the support we need. Ventilator capacity is the scariest thing.

So what are the solutions? 5/

A few days ago I tweeted that someone wanted to pull out all the stops and make simple ventilators & post those plans. I was asked who, but didn’t have permission to say. I encouraged them to go the press on their own and they did.

Now they’re public.6/

news.trust.org/item/202003272…

I mentioned someone has a project to build 100,000 vents. I checked today & believe they are still on track. I think they can be public soon.

And I know there are more. 7/

And working wit FEMA we launched projectn95.com/vents to help move vents around the country. Since NY’s shortage is today will be someone else’s tomorrow. And (mock wood) NY will be past their peak. Takes faith & coordination but it’s wartime. We can do it. 8/

Hang on... I can disclose tonight based on a blog where a tech company is driving an initiative to create vents has come from. See the last line. I know some of these people. I think they can deliver. 9/

The reason all this has been so important is because the “today I will-tomorrow I won’t” Defense Prosuction Act reticence of Trump.

I think we learned the key. Piss off Trump like GM did and he will make you make ventilators. Particularly if he’s also pissed at your governor.10/

And while it’s hard to get this information, I’ve been calling hospitals in states far from the epicenter and hearing they are half full. That means there are vents out there. 11/

Admit it, a month ago you had no idea how interesting it would be to read 7 tweets about hospital ventilators. Feel free to re-read as often as you like. Really. 12/

Now to some of the good stuff. Imagine if we all stayed inside for weeks and saw no one— even our own families and let no one into the country.

After this awful period, there would be no virus.

Now that’s impractical. But it makes the point that if R0 < 1 we are winning. 13/

But then what? We would be back in a similar place to where we would have been when the ship was docking. Testing everyone and contract tracing, tracking the illness person by person. Understanding who has immunity and who doesn’t. 14/

Which is why news like this is so important. This is 50,000 tests/day. Real results in 5 minutes.

We’ve gone from 10,000/week to 200,000/week and unless this competes for supplies would push us over 500,000. And real time results matter.15/

https://twitter.com/abbottnews/status/1243680163054915584?s=21

I’m trying to figure out how much we need. I suspect it’s at least 2 million/week.

So kudos to @US_FDA and kudos to the scientists at @AbbottNews.

#StayHome is about giving our scientists time to catch up to this thing. Give them time. Give our hospitals time. 16/

But we also need a centralized top down strategy. Right now we are running out of things & don’t know who has what. Party A has swabs but no reagents. Party B has reagents but no swabs. So nothing gets produced. Put them together & we’re in business. 17/

If you want to make your way through my recommendations on how to fix this, here they are. Warning, not very user friendly as I put together for a specific audience to act on.

In a nutshell,mit says: get organized. Here’s how. 18/

So I don’t intend to be rosy here. It’s going to get brutal. We will lose people. We already have. But we have what it takes to get through this.

For those going through it directly, I feel like these positive indicators are irrelevant. But there is a path through this.

Tomorrow I’m going to lay out what the path could look like, which is an amalgamation of smarter people’s views. It really all depends on how much we adhere to #StayHome. 20/

I decided to start a podcast. Why? Because I want to do something the whole family can listen to that doesn’t increase our anxiety but gets us through this with honesty & openness.

And I want more subscribers than Hannity.

So please subscribe: smarturl.it/inthebubble /end