Some musings on regional impacts.
Initial takeaway: With aid cut, US (for now) is practically getting along better w/Taliban than w/Ghani govt. It appears to view Kabul as bigger obstacle to peace talks than Taliban. Bad news for Delhi, not necessarily for Islamabad. #AFGPanel
Initial takeaway: With aid cut, US (for now) is practically getting along better w/Taliban than w/Ghani govt. It appears to view Kabul as bigger obstacle to peace talks than Taliban. Bad news for Delhi, not necessarily for Islamabad. #AFGPanel
Otherwise, too early to gauge regional impact. Depends how the aid cut plays out. Will it help break political stalemate and strengthen prospects for peace talks, or will it poison US-Afg relations and/or hasten US exit from Afg w/o peace or peace talks. #AFGPanel
If the US aid cut helps peace talks along: Good for New Delhi, even better for Islamabad.
If aid cut does little, if peace talks don’t take off, if US quickens withdrawal: Bad for both (war’s bad for everyone) but perhaps not as bad for Pak.
Let’s unpack. #AFGPanel
If aid cut does little, if peace talks don’t take off, if US quickens withdrawal: Bad for both (war’s bad for everyone) but perhaps not as bad for Pak.
Let’s unpack. #AFGPanel
Delhi has strong relations w/Kabul (they have a longstanding strategic partnership agreement, there’s ample Indian assistance in Afg).
Islamabad’s ties w/Kabul fragile at best, toxic at worst.
If Ghani gov't is undermined, more of a problem for Delhi than Islamabad. #AFGPanel
Islamabad’s ties w/Kabul fragile at best, toxic at worst.
If Ghani gov't is undermined, more of a problem for Delhi than Islamabad. #AFGPanel
In terms of Afghanistan’s trajectory, what do Delhi and Islamabad want? The most recent developments suggest peace talks may begin soon.
Both support peace talks as currently envisaged, but India more cautiously and Pakistan more emphatically. #AFGPanel
Both support peace talks as currently envisaged, but India more cautiously and Pakistan more emphatically. #AFGPanel
Why? A likely political settlement would entail a power-sharing deal that involves the Taliban, a Pakistani asset that is no friend of India’s.
Generally, India and Pakistan prefer governments in Afghanistan that are friendly to them and not as friendly to the other. #AFGPanel
Generally, India and Pakistan prefer governments in Afghanistan that are friendly to them and not as friendly to the other. #AFGPanel
If the US aid cut doesn’t resolve political stalemate, peace prospects are undermined, the war keeps raging, and the US hits the road, implications for India/Pak?
Pak would double down support for Taliban. India would respond in kind w/its own assets in Afg. Proxy war? #AFGPanel
Pak would double down support for Taliban. India would respond in kind w/its own assets in Afg. Proxy war? #AFGPanel
No credible thread can end w/o some shameless self-promotion. Here’s a piece I published recently for @WPReview on Pakistan’s role/interests in the Afg peace process. I argue Pak strategic interests may benefit from unending war in Afg. #AFGPanel worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28586…
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