If coronavirus kills as big a % of the American population as the Spanish Flu did, that will be ~1,635,000 people.
Assuming a 4% case fatality rate (from hospitals being overwhelmed), that would mean ~40.8M cases.
At recent rates of growth we'd reach that in 27 days.
Assuming a 4% case fatality rate (from hospitals being overwhelmed), that would mean ~40.8M cases.
At recent rates of growth we'd reach that in 27 days.
So, governors and mayors (and Trump), I suggest we SHUT IT ALL DOWN everywhere, right now, and keep it shut down for a while.
#ShutItDown
#ShutItDown
Keep in mind: This isn't a prediction, it's just an illustration of how fast things are moving...
Also note that the 4% number is the percent of *confirmed* cases that might die if the hospital system is overwhelmed, as in Wuhan or Lombardy. The *true* mortality rate is much lower than 4%, but that fact does not change the calculations above.
Alternatively:
If 20% of Americans get the virus (same as Diamond Princess), and 1% of true infected die, this means 65.4M true cases and 654k deaths. If we eventually confirm half of true cases, that's 32.7M confirmed cases, which we'll reach in...26 days at current rates.
If 20% of Americans get the virus (same as Diamond Princess), and 1% of true infected die, this means 65.4M true cases and 654k deaths. If we eventually confirm half of true cases, that's 32.7M confirmed cases, which we'll reach in...26 days at current rates.
The "Diamond Princess" guesstimate works out to about 1/3 the total deaths of the "Spanish Flu" guesstimate, but both scenarios happen in almost exactly the same amount of time at current growth rates: 4 weeks from now.
So we don't have a lot of time. Shut everything down now.
So we don't have a lot of time. Shut everything down now.
