The modelers at Imperial College are out with another interesting analysis – this time looking at the estimated attack rates (percent of population infected with SARS-Cov-2) and the effects of social distancing measures in 11 European countries. imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
The authors use reported deaths to back-calculate an estimated attack rate in each country through March 28. The range is wide across countries: Spain and Italy have the highest attack rates (15% and 9.8% respectively), while Germany and Norway have the lowest (0.7% and 0.41%). 
Notably, they estimate the UK attack rate at 2.7% - which of course is much lower than the estimate from an earlier Oxford study that perhaps as many as 50% of the UK population had already been infected.
The authors estimate the reproductive number likely fell to around or below 1 in countries after they imposed strict social distancing measures, though estimates have wide confidence intervals due to lack of data.
Authors also calculate the number of “lives saved” by these transmission-reducing measures be comparing to an unmitigated (counterfactual) modeled scenario.
Overall, according to these calculations social distancing measures may have already saved almost 60,000 lives in these 11 countries, including 38,000 in Italy and 16,000 in Spain.
