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Today's coronavirus testing data shows a big jump - over 216k tests reported yesterday. Only a small increase in positives, massive increase in negatives.

It looks like CA and some others finally reported a bunch of previously unreported negative tests!

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Given that this is a one-time reporting bump, we'll have to wait til tomorrow to know whether testing is really increasing. But this tells us that we've done a bit more testing in the past than we thought.
So if California's reporting of negative tests was the only change, then maybe 70,000 of these tests didn't really happen yesterday.

But that would mean ~146,000 actual tests yesterday, which would still be an all-time high. So that's good.

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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
If New York's outbreak is peaking, it's just about two weeks after the stay-at-home order.

That's the exact same amount of time lockdowns took to make the outbreaks peak in Italy and Wuhan. And it means most other states will peak this week.
Remember, though an outbreak peaking means the rate of case growth goes linear. And deaths follow cases with a lag, so they'll take even longer to go linear, then longer for the rate of increase to fall, then even longer to go to a low level.

The rest of April will be rough.
Now we have to focus on getting #TestAndTrace systems in place everywhere, so that we can start lifting lockdowns in May without the virus roaring back, killing more tens of thousands, and devastating our economy for more months.

We must prepare NOW.
Read 3 tweets
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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
1/Obviously it's too early to speculate on how coronavirus will change our society in the long term.

But I have a thought about how it might subtly change gender roles...
2/Coronavirus makes it seem more likely that the 21st century will really be the Century of Bioscience -- that biology will move to the forefront of both social importance and innovation, overtaking physical sciences and merging with information technology.
3/And that means that our relevant technical experts will, increasingly, be women.

Women already receive a majority of bioscience PhDs, and their dominance has been growing in recent years. For Master's degrees the disparity is even greater.

cgsnet.org/ckfinder/userf…
Read 9 tweets
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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
1/OK here's a relatively small and inconsequential thing to distract from coronavirus.

The standard narrative of why Bernie lost the 2020 primary is that the Democratic Establishment forced Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg out of the race, clearing a path for Biden...
2/But a few weeks before that happened, when I noted that Bernie was putting up sub-30% numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire, I was told that this was only because he was facing a very divided field.

3/The implication was that Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and Warren were taking a lot of support away from Bernie, and that if it were a two-person race, Bernie would be in the lead.

Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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Jan Ransom
@Jan_Ransom
Today 75 inmates tested positive for #coronavirus in NYC jails including #RikersIsland nearly double the amount yesterday. 39 Correction staff have the virus. @LegalAidNYC compared the rate of infection to city and state numbers.
By comparison, the rate of infections in NY state prisons is moving at a slower pace. Three inmates including #HarveyWeinstein have #coronavirus. But the number of correction officers is almost double from yesterday with 33 who tested positive.
At this rate, the number of inmates who will contract #coronavirus on #RikersIsland could reach triple digits as soon as tomorrow. Still, efforts to release certain inmates — several hundred — are slow, too slow to minimize the spread of the virus.
Read 3 tweets
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Alicia Kearns MP
@aliciakearns
Today @CommonsForeign is hearing evidence from @DominicRaab

Our first topic is #coronavirus

FCO hotline in Malaga answered 28,000 phone calls just yesterday. Many embassies reported as closed are in fact working from home to minimise spread & due to host country restriction 1/
I asked whether Foreign Sec is confident our consular staff abroad are receiving the support & protections they need, and queried whether any countries are making it more difficult for them.

I also put on record my thanks to all the crisis & consular staff working tirelessly 2/
Foreign Secretary says he is pushing for greater G7 and G20 cooperation on #coronavirus

3/
Read 16 tweets
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Tyler Young
@tylerisyoung
CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19)
This is a roundup of what I found to be the most interesting & helpful sources on my journey into the void. #Coronavirus #Pandemic #Misinformation #CDC #CPP #WHO
This is for friends & family, but also to raise concern over media censorship & begin a discussion of what are best practices for both traditional & decentralized media outlets. This is a collection of sources to tell a larger story and spark interest.
Very few sources peer reviewed. Some behind paywalls. Some mainstream news. Some International News. Some in other languages (Use chrome). Some Harvard medical Journals. Some unverified. Some factually incorrect. Have some salt with your rice & beans.
Read 132 tweets
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COVID19
@V2019N
"Now, all eyes are on the coronavirus numbers, which economists & investors using to estimate the outbreak’s toll—& they are too perfect to mean much."
What does this mean for investors and analysts? If something seems too good to be true, it probably is. barrons.com/articles/china…
A statistical analysis of China’s coronavirus casualty data shows a near-perfect prediction model that data analysts say isn’t likely to naturally occur, casting doubt over the reliability of the numbers being reported to the @WHO
Barron’s re-created regression analysis of total deaths caused by #coronavirus and found similarly high variance. The high r-squared means there is essentially zero unexpected variability in reported cases day after day.
Read 4 tweets
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EVent Horizon
@evdefender
Updated with today's Mainland China "data". Note that the R^2 for the last 4 data points from the mode... er, um actual contracted cases rounds to 1.0000.

Will post what tomorrow's numbers should be if they maintain narrative.

#coronavirus
A finer point on what is happening:

China is a country of 1.4 Billion with 10s of Millions in lockdown in cities & entire regions. Schools are closed for months; work stoppages for weeks.

China posts #coronavirus #s daily for at least 31 provincial divisions in the Mainland.
The #coronavirus expansion is extremely complex with many moving parts... even including mandatory cremations.

Yet, I have been able to predict their reporting within an extremely narrow band since early in the outbreak expansion (around 4500 cases / 100 deaths).
Read 420 tweets
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EVent Horizon
@evdefender
Think someone is lying to you?

First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.

#coronavirus
The mortality rate they want you to report is the - 0 day rate: Today's Confirmed Death total minus Today's Confirmed Case total.

This has not varied outside of 1/10th of 1% in the last 5 prints.

#coronavirus
But even a minor adjustment of a few days in the mortality rate paints an entirely different picture

#coronavirus

Read 386 tweets

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