Good morning! 😀Fed is all in (again!!) - and this time there is a great confidence among traders (again!!) that Fed can has stopped deflation and supplied enough liquidity to the system. But is that really the case? Stay tuned for my perspectives #HZupdates
Let me start an nontraditional way - with a zoom in. This is #SP500 1 hour chart. I look for corrections and main directional moves. This is a correctional move - and it may have finalized! So - the main wave will soon set in again. Now - lets zoom out #HZupdates 
The zoom in was of wave 4. It is correctional in nature - and will hence be 100% (or way more) surpassed. Notice - it managed to retrace to 50% Fib. I think we are really close to the next strong decline. EW gives us ~1800 for bottom of wave A = the illiquid deflationary period
Now, we another zoom-in. This time on #Oil. Again - a clear correctional pattern, which means main direction to the downside is not done. And it seems to me, that the move has already started #HZupdates
Zooming out on #Oil - the picture is clear. We still have the final decline ahead, which will take us to ~8.5 USD. Why? Because of the relation between length of A and C. Another ~63% drop!! Think illiquid #Deflation phase is over? It is not!
Same message from #Commodity index #CRB. One final drop before SECULAR BOTTOM is in. I have talked last week about the consequence of this major bottom. For now Deflation continues - and in this coming phase - I expect full SELL OUT of everything to get USD #HZupdates
And at the same time, it seems like we could see strong spike in Yields. Below is #TLT 10 yr. Observe divergence and EW-structure. This would constitute THE PERFECT STORM - Illiquidity!! Spike in yields and fast dropping inflation will cause strong spike in Real Yields #HZupdates
So - strong demand for #USD #DXY ahead. But - that must coincide with a drop in #EURUSD. I have had the chart below for a long time. The Backbone of my model. No doubt - a decline - or crash - is coming. But - let's zoom in to get picture of possible ST developments #HZupdates
On 4H chart for #EURUSD, I have been struggling with price action since March 23rd. Now, I see a triangle, which constitutes wave c of b (circle). This is an EXTREMELY powerful pattern -meaning, the decline should be forceful ...and begin soon! Some bad news coming out of Europe?
For #DXY - there may be some more downside initially. But - soon - we will likely see a powerful move to the upside as the shortage of #USD is becoming clear #HZupdates
Strong #USD, declining inflation and spike in rates is a toxic environment for Precious Metals. Below is #Silver. A clear correctional move since March 17th. Soon - reversal and strong decline towards ~8.4 USD #HZupdates
As we saw at the charts for #Tips and #Gold, then the latter has been wandering off in a "Got Gold" hysteria completely unattached to the real economy and other assets. The LT EW-picture still stands. Strong decline and new bottom below 2015. My target is 800-890 #HZupdates
Who will be needing liquidity in the system? #DeutscheBank #DB is an example (there are MANY!). This chart is scary. Bounce since March (like Silver, Gold, Equities etc.) but the final flush remains. All lines suggests resolution below 0 (zero)! But observe divergence! Bail-out?
All for now! Strong last Deflation bust ahead - before SECULAR BOTTOM. #Commodities, Precious Metals, #Equities will be sold off to get USD, which is in severe shortage! Stay safe and have a great extended weekend!! All best from Copenhagen #HZupdates
