1/6: A short #Brexit retrospective as we enter the last month. Four and a half years ago we started down this path with little understanding of the route or the destination, pushed by ideologues who exploited the diverse and often reasonable grievances of many people.
2/6: Over 4 years #Brexit ideologues have driven us inexorably to more extreme forms of separation, losing the good will of European allies, sidelining our globally successful #services industries, bringing cost & uncertainty for manufacturers & farmers, putting #jobs at risk.
3/6: With #Brexit we have created uncertainty for millions of #British and #EU citizens, weakened our #NHS, overlooked the arguments of our scientists, reduced opportunities for our young people and brought the unity of the UK further into question.
4/6: Now, with no #Brexit trade arrangement in place with our biggest market one month before the deadline, a UK government that aspires to leadership in a high-tech global economy says it is ready to abandon the deal over the sharing of fish stocks.
5/6: And this at a time when President #Biden offers a chance of realignment between #Europe and #America on the big challenges ahead on #climate, health, #trade and #China, and the EU is preparing to respond.
6/6: So far we have seen no tangible benefit from #Brexit. I hope we make it a success, but we are making huge sacrifices on the altar of a facile notion of #sovereignty and independence. Deal or no deal, the #Brexit we are getting is not what we were sold in 2016.

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More from @SimonFraser00

26 Oct
1/10: A win for #JoeBiden in the #USElection next week would be good for the overall interests of #UK but problematic for the #BorisJohnson government. How would the arrival of a Biden administration affect British #foreignpolicy? A thread..
2/10: As the song says, it ain’t what you do it’s the way that you do it. Not all #Trump foreign policy was bad (though much was). He made an important call on #China. But he has no idea of the common good, squandered American leadership & damaged alliances & institutions.
3/10: #Biden would be a reversion toward the norm. Unexciting perhaps, but needed & welcome. But he would not mean wholesale change in #US foreign policy. The pressures of #COVID19, political polarisation & economic dislocation remain. As will the tough geopolitical environment.
Read 10 tweets
23 Jun
1/10: So, it’s four years since the #Brexit referendum. We have formally left the #EU but remain in the single market & customs union until 31 December. The future relationship beyond that is still unknown. What are the chances of a deal before the deadline? A thread...
2/10: Negotiators have just 4 months left. It will take two more after that for a deal to be ratified. If there is a deal the scope will be narrow; aiming for tariff-free & quota-free trade in goods. Little on services, never mind non-trade issues. A hard version of #Brexit.
3/10: UK insists a deal must not limit “sovereignty” or leave jurisdiction with the ECJ. It has proposed a series of deals built around a free trade agreement that would involve widespread removal of traditional trade barriers, but far short of the promised “frictionless trade”.
Read 10 tweets
26 Apr
1/11: Before #Covid19 the #geopolitical system was shifting from globalism & multilateralism towards a big power stand-off between #US & #China. The pandemic is accelerating this trend, as all major players struggle to cope. A thread on this, with input from @AlexWhite1812..
2/11: #China, source of the outbreak, has taken a big hit. It suppressed information & numbers. The lockdown apparently worked but was harsh. China is now struggling to reverse a backlash in world opinion through propaganda, exploiting “first recoverer” status & US disarray..
3/11: The early #US federal response was incoherent & failed any test of international leadership. Trump has been awful. But the Fed moved far and fast & some states & cities have done well. Disproportionately high fatalities would damage American prestige...
Read 11 tweets
17 Mar
1/6: Word on the street is that common sense is breaking out & government may be privately recognising that #Brexit negotiations now need to be postponed & transition extended beyond end December. This was always the right answer: here are 5 reasons why it is now doubly right...
2/6: Bandwidth. All UK & EU efforts should be devoted to tackling the massive #COVID crisis. Senior ministers & officials cannot have enough time now for the crucial business of deciding our long term relationship with #EU. And don’t forget #COP26 climate conference in Nov..
3/6: Practical. Travel suspensions are likely to last for months. Virtual negotiating is unsatisfactory. How do you read body language & do the private deal in the corridor? Also harder to coordinate large teams. And presumably key individuals will get ill along the way..
Read 6 tweets
27 Feb
1/8: Now that we have both the UK and EU mandates for #Brexit part 2, what chance an agreement? It’s not looking great. Much will depend in the end on political will. A short thread...
2/8: In terms of practical outcomes the two “visions” of the future (if that is the word) are not that far apart. But in terms of philosophy and structure, there is an ocean between them.
3/8: Big problems are looming on the level playing field for market rules, governance of a deal, fish and financial services. They will have to be hammered out before the June stocktake. If we can get beyond them, the landing zone for a wider deal may emerge.
Read 8 tweets
19 Feb
1/8: David Frost’s Brussels speech was an intelligent exposition of his view on the EU & an important explanation of #Brexit thinking in the new UK government: asserting the indivisible #sovereignty of the European nation state & the primacy of political identity over the market.
2/8: But, rooted in the 18th century thought of Edmund #Burke (ironically Irish), his argument bypassed the tragic history of how these independent & “revered” nation states behaved towards each other in the 20th century. And the low confidence in today’s national governments.
3/8: Many of us who take a more favourable view of the #EU recognise the overreach & democratic distance of its institutions. But surveying history, today’s world & the scale of European nations, we believe close, structured collaboration between them remains essential.
Read 8 tweets

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