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Simon Fraser

26 Oct, 10 tweets, 9 min read

1/10: A win for #JoeBiden in the #USElection next week would be good for the overall interests of #UK but problematic for the #BorisJohnson government. How would the arrival of a Biden administration affect British #foreignpolicy? A thread..

2/10: As the song says, it ain’t what you do it’s the way that you do it. Not all #Trump foreign policy was bad (though much was). He made an important call on #China. But he has no idea of the common good, squandered American leadership & damaged alliances & institutions.

3/10: #Biden would be a reversion toward the norm. Unexciting perhaps, but needed & welcome. But he would not mean wholesale change in #US foreign policy. The pressures of #COVID19, political polarisation & economic dislocation remain. As will the tough geopolitical environment.

4/10: Though there is is no appetite for expansive US internationalism, a #Biden win would be a chance to change the tone & recalibrate relationships. He will want to work with allies and reinforce relations with #NATO partners & leading #EU members like #Germany & #France.

5/10: But Western democracies must avoid complacency. There is no way back to old post Cold War relationships. They will be expected to prove their value on today’s American agenda, which continues to shift away from #Europe: above all on #China & #defence burden sharing.

6/10: Yes, there will be a chance to reengage #US leadership in multilateral agendas & organisations, provided they show their worth. WHO & #WTO for example. On climate, a different US policy should permit more collaboration & an opportunity for #UK as host of #COP26.

7/10: In theory Biden’s #foreignpolicy instinct, favouring alliances & cooperation, should present a golden opportunity for #UK - the country with still the strongest instinctive & institutional ties in Washington - as it seeks to forge a new global role after #Brexit.

8/10: But while it may be comfortable with Biden’s foreign policy, this British government is politically more attuned to #Trump: of the Right & rooted in post 2016 nationalist identity politics. Trump supported #Brexit, Biden did not. Does Downing Street prefer Trump?

9/10: A big UK/US #FTA is unlikely in any scenario. This is more about political symbolism than economic reality. It seems less likely with Biden: he has no political investment in a UK deal, the Democrats are closed on #trade & Biden is influenced by the Irish angles of #Brexit.

10/10: The people who said in 2016 that #Trump might be only for four years but #Brexit would be for a generation or more may soon be proved at least half right. A #Biden win would be good for the UK, but probably not for Brexiters’ naive notions of #GlobalBritain

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More from @SimonFraser00

Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

23 Jun

1/10: So, it’s four years since the #Brexit referendum. We have formally left the #EU but remain in the single market & customs union until 31 December. The future relationship beyond that is still unknown. What are the chances of a deal before the deadline? A thread...

2/10: Negotiators have just 4 months left. It will take two more after that for a deal to be ratified. If there is a deal the scope will be narrow; aiming for tariff-free & quota-free trade in goods. Little on services, never mind non-trade issues. A hard version of #Brexit.

3/10: UK insists a deal must not limit “sovereignty” or leave jurisdiction with the ECJ. It has proposed a series of deals built around a free trade agreement that would involve widespread removal of traditional trade barriers, but far short of the promised “frictionless trade”.

Read 10 tweets

Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

26 Apr

@AlexWhite1812

1/11: Before #Covid19 the #geopolitical system was shifting from globalism & multilateralism towards a big power stand-off between #US & #China. The pandemic is accelerating this trend, as all major players struggle to cope. A thread on this, with input from @AlexWhite1812..

2/11: #China, source of the outbreak, has taken a big hit. It suppressed information & numbers. The lockdown apparently worked but was harsh. China is now struggling to reverse a backlash in world opinion through propaganda, exploiting “first recoverer” status & US disarray..

3/11: The early #US federal response was incoherent & failed any test of international leadership. Trump has been awful. But the Fed moved far and fast & some states & cities have done well. Disproportionately high fatalities would damage American prestige...

Read 11 tweets

Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

17 Mar

1/6: Word on the street is that common sense is breaking out & government may be privately recognising that #Brexit negotiations now need to be postponed & transition extended beyond end December. This was always the right answer: here are 5 reasons why it is now doubly right...

2/6: Bandwidth. All UK & EU efforts should be devoted to tackling the massive #COVID crisis. Senior ministers & officials cannot have enough time now for the crucial business of deciding our long term relationship with #EU. And don’t forget #COP26 climate conference in Nov..

3/6: Practical. Travel suspensions are likely to last for months. Virtual negotiating is unsatisfactory. How do you read body language & do the private deal in the corridor? Also harder to coordinate large teams. And presumably key individuals will get ill along the way..

Read 6 tweets

Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

27 Feb

1/8: Now that we have both the UK and EU mandates for #Brexit part 2, what chance an agreement? It’s not looking great. Much will depend in the end on political will. A short thread...

2/8: In terms of practical outcomes the two “visions” of the future (if that is the word) are not that far apart. But in terms of philosophy and structure, there is an ocean between them.

3/8: Big problems are looming on the level playing field for market rules, governance of a deal, fish and financial services. They will have to be hammered out before the June stocktake. If we can get beyond them, the landing zone for a wider deal may emerge.

Read 8 tweets

Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

19 Feb

1/8: David Frost’s Brussels speech was an intelligent exposition of his view on the EU & an important explanation of #Brexit thinking in the new UK government: asserting the indivisible #sovereignty of the European nation state & the primacy of political identity over the market.

2/8: But, rooted in the 18th century thought of Edmund #Burke (ironically Irish), his argument bypassed the tragic history of how these independent & “revered” nation states behaved towards each other in the 20th century. And the low confidence in today’s national governments.

3/8: Many of us who take a more favourable view of the #EU recognise the overreach & democratic distance of its institutions. But surveying history, today’s world & the scale of European nations, we believe close, structured collaboration between them remains essential.

Read 8 tweets

Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

19 Jan

1/10: We are 12 days from legal #Brexit. What will happen on 31 Jan? What will it feel like on 1 Feb? More important, what will happen after that? In a nutshell, nothing will change & everything will change. And harder choices lie ahead. Thread of 10...

2/10: On 31 Jan BJ will declare #Brexit done & hail a brave new world. Big Ben may bong. Flags will come down. But on 1 Feb we will wake to an eerily familiar world. Until Dec 31 at least all rights & obligations of EU membership continue, though we will not be at the table..

3/10: Ministers will soon say that the fact the sky has not fallen in after we have ”got #Brexit done” proves “doomsters & gloomsters” wrong. They will try to shift public debate on to other things. But Brexit will still be there & will not be done..

Read 10 tweets

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