Meanwhile, in #Pakistan, the capital #Islamabad undergoes a Night of the Knives, with conspiracie, boxes of cash exchanged, daggers out, as Prime Minister Imran Khan fights for political survival in today's #SenateElections2021. A SC judge on record: "We're living in a gutter!"/1
Basically, the run-up to #SenateElections2021 exposed PM Khan govt's weaknesses. He spent the last 48 hours scurrying around to secure his base of lawmakers with intelligence reports suggesting some sort of a mini-rebellion. So he moved fast. /2
A war of leaked videos ensued (vote-buying deal making). The viral clips embarrassed opponents but also deterred shady #PTI lawmakers. Khan's party even struck secret deals with political enemies to adjust seats, where possible. /3

#SenateElections2021
Prime Minister Khan will largely survive this Night of the Knives & the #SenateElections2021, but he comes out bruised. Opposition is stronger. & there's the seat challenge from the capital. Losing it won't end his govt but will signal a downward spiral. Endless #Pakistan drama/4
BREAKING News from #Pakistan | Just in: Major setback for Prime Minister Imran Khan. The opposition defeats Khan in a do-or-die #SenateElections2021. The ruling #PTI's winning streak comes to an end.
"This could be the beginning of the end for Prime Minister Imran Khan's story of meteoric rise in #Pakistan."

As I predicted 12 hours ago, and have been saying in interviews since late 2019, that PM Khan's style of politics would lead him to a dead end.

Prime Minister Imran Khan loses the confidence of #Pakistan Parliament, becomes a sitting duck for the next two years in office. Alone, he is responsible for depleting #PTI's impressive sweep in 2018 election in less than three years.

Night of the Knives Part II in #Pakistan. Talk of more surprises. PM Imran Khan bravely offers himself for what should be an easy confidence vote in Parliament, outsmarting the opposition. But rumors swirl about more intrigue within his party. #GameOverImranKhan
#BehindYouSkipper

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More from @_AhmedQuraishi

4 Mar
Embattled PM Imran Khan hints he might lose office in a disjointed live address to the nation where he digressed into a long lecture on poverty+corruption & linked a rebellion against him within the ruling #PTI to a heroic struggle for #Pakistan's future/1
Imran Khan appeared incoherent and angry, blamed opposition politicians for a rebellion targeting him personally from within his #PTI party. He offered little details on this conspiracy, vowed to resist whether he remains in power or not. /2
Image
Imran Khan's TV address came as his govt moved a #VoteOfConfidence in Parliament from today to Saturday as chatter increased that he's unsure of the situation, has asked his aides to do the homework to avoid surprises, & likely banned party lawmakers front leaving the capital./3 Image
Read 6 tweets
2 Mar
Today, #Israel🇮🇱 has more #Arab allies than #Turkey🇹🇷 or #Iran🇮🇷. Premature to write off moderate Arabs. That could be what #Obama administration wanted by supporting extremist takeover in Middle East. The opposite has happened. Now there is a push back. Israel & Arabs favor it.
Erdogan's charisma, Islamist allies, & Turkey's soft power make him a key player. Iran's expansionism is based on weaponizing non-Iranian Shia communities. Both examples represent forms of religious extremism. Israel & Gulf offer a new model for the future of the Middle East.
#Turkey is a #NATO ally, a leading #Muslim success story as long as it steers clear of extremism. Half of #Iran cabinet are #US graduates, but it's model is not attractive in the Middle East, promoted by shady money and guns. A third model is presented by #AbrahamAccords.
Read 5 tweets
21 Feb
Destabilization by #Israel+#SaudiArabia+#UAE in the Middle East is equal to the destabilization by #Iran. Is it?

I listened to @PeterBeinart on @FareedZakaria's show. He used this contrast to justify rejecting the idea of a #JCPOA rethink to include Iran's malign activities. /1
Are #Israel #KSA #UAE destabilizing the Middle East equally to or more than #Iran? This juxtaposition is used by Iran govt and sympathizers who suggest Tehran's wide network of proxies & operations in the region is not unique. Rather, it's normal. /2
Keeping #JCPOA intact is a legitimate goal but not on the basis of a fallacy. Moral and political equivalency that @PeterBeinart suggested [b/w #KSA/#Israel/#UAE and #Iran] is worth discussing. In short bursts, just key points, for the sake of informing. /3
Read 10 tweets
16 Feb
A foreign policy expert from #Iraq proposes a regional axis made up of #KSA #Egypt #Pakistan #Turkey to balance #Biden policies that apparently mark a return to Obama-era antagonism toward America's traditional allies.

#Israel might be added to this axis. /1
This sparks a long overdue debate on why #America in the last part of #Bush admin and throughout #Obama years pushed its allies under the bus (#Egypt #Pakistan #KSA #Gulf #Turkey) & allowed hostile IRGC-QF militias to circle #Israel. /2
There is no logical answer. And if this theory initially seemed farfetched and conspiratorial, some #Biden admin signals showed it wants to put #America back on the same track of collision with its traditional Mideast allies, including Israel. /3
Read 9 tweets
15 Feb
#Pakistan-#Egypt FM-level talks.

Issues: #Libya-#Yemen-#Gulf-#Ethiopia-#Gaza-#Kashmir.

Robust military ties but overall weak political exchanges between #Cairo & #Islamabad.

Yet @ImranKhanPTI-@AlsisiOfficial governments have recently been in contact to upgrade cooperation.
#Pakistan & #Egypt revive stalled ties. Pakistani foreign minister meets President Al-Sisi. Agreement to launch high-level political consultations next month. #PakMilitary will participate in drills in Egypt in summer. /2

#Pakistan & #Egypt are often considered two players with imp roles in ensuring #Gulf stability, along regional & intl partners; can help in Mideast peace, in Yemen, in fighting extremism & extremist groups. These are recurring themes in discussions:
/3
Read 6 tweets
14 Feb
Timely Change: PM #ImranKhan abandons the neutrality mantra. His govt now openly supports allies like #Turkey vs #PKK & #KSA vs #Houthis. The earlier approach failed, & the credit for this policy change likely goes to Pres #Erdogan who asked for Pak support in #Syria last year.
Passive neutrality as a policy has hurt #Pakistan's interests. Refusing to participate in global politics but expecting international support is wishful thinking. Neutrality promoted by PM Imran Khan was misplaced. Now the idea is dying a natural death:
While changes in #Pakistan foreign policy on #Houthis+#PKK are welcome steps, policymakers need to decide if they make policies for a state with interests or for Code Pink, the radical leftwing NGO, bcz sometimes policy debate in Islamabad blurs the lines:
Read 4 tweets

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