Destabilization by #Israel+#SaudiArabia+#UAE in the Middle East is equal to the destabilization by #Iran. Is it?
I listened to @PeterBeinart on @FareedZakaria's show. He used this contrast to justify rejecting the idea of a #JCPOA rethink to include Iran's malign activities. /1
Are #Israel#KSA#UAE destabilizing the Middle East equally to or more than #Iran? This juxtaposition is used by Iran govt and sympathizers who suggest Tehran's wide network of proxies & operations in the region is not unique. Rather, it's normal. /2
Keeping #JCPOA intact is a legitimate goal but not on the basis of a fallacy. Moral and political equivalency that @PeterBeinart suggested [b/w #KSA/#Israel/#UAE and #Iran] is worth discussing. In short bursts, just key points, for the sake of informing. /3
#Iran controls four #Arab capitals, according to senior govt officials.
The #KSA/#UAE and #Israel do not occupy #Iranian territories. Or the capital of any country. /4
41 years ago, #Iran's new post-1979 govt introduced violence into the annual Muslim pilgrimage #hajj, probably for the first time in centuries, in a rude awakening for both peaceful ordinary Iranian pigrims and for #KSA and other states in the region. /5
There is not a single incident in 42 yrs since #Israel embassy closed in #Tehran in 1979 where Israel attacked #Iran. A lot can be said about Israeli operations in the region, the Palestinian occupied territories. But none on Israel attacking Iran, yet./6
The biggest victims of #Iran's foreign ops in 42 years have likely been peaceful #Shia Muslim citizens of other states recruited for #IRGC's foreign projects. One of them rebelled against Iranian govt in the holiest Shia Muslim city, #Karbala, in #Iraq /7 france24.com/en/20191114-in…
There is no record of #KSA/#UAE meddling inside #Iran (some reporting to the contrary in recent yrs exists; could be retaliation if true). However, for citizens in #Iraq, the 2nd largest #Shia Muslim state, to attack Iranian targets, this says a lot. /8 aljazeera.com/news/2019/11/2…
In decades under sanctions, #Iran used #UAE ports as a gateway to the world. Today, 42 years later, #Emirati oil money goes into human development, while Iranian oil wealth is squandered in a regional religious project & sectarian wars. No equivalency here. /9
Mr. @PeterBeinart's point was simple: that #JCPOA should not be expanded to include #Iran's proxy operations. Fair point & debatable. But to grant legitimacy to those ops by equating them to what #KSA/#UAE or #Israel do, that's unfair & incorrect. /10 @threadreaderapp unroll
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
A foreign policy expert from #Iraq proposes a regional axis made up of #KSA#Egypt#Pakistan#Turkey to balance #Biden policies that apparently mark a return to Obama-era antagonism toward America's traditional allies.
This sparks a long overdue debate on why #America in the last part of #Bush admin and throughout #Obama years pushed its allies under the bus (#Egypt#Pakistan#KSA#Gulf#Turkey) & allowed hostile IRGC-QF militias to circle #Israel. /2
There is no logical answer. And if this theory initially seemed farfetched and conspiratorial, some #Biden admin signals showed it wants to put #America back on the same track of collision with its traditional Mideast allies, including Israel. /3
#Pakistan & #Egypt revive stalled ties. Pakistani foreign minister meets President Al-Sisi. Agreement to launch high-level political consultations next month. #PakMilitary will participate in drills in Egypt in summer. /2
#Pakistan & #Egypt are often considered two players with imp roles in ensuring #Gulf stability, along regional & intl partners; can help in Mideast peace, in Yemen, in fighting extremism & extremist groups. These are recurring themes in discussions: /3
Timely Change: PM #ImranKhan abandons the neutrality mantra. His govt now openly supports allies like #Turkey vs #PKK & #KSA vs #Houthis. The earlier approach failed, & the credit for this policy change likely goes to Pres #Erdogan who asked for Pak support in #Syria last year.
Passive neutrality as a policy has hurt #Pakistan's interests. Refusing to participate in global politics but expecting international support is wishful thinking. Neutrality promoted by PM Imran Khan was misplaced. Now the idea is dying a natural death:
While changes in #Pakistan foreign policy on #Houthis+#PKK are welcome steps, policymakers need to decide if they make policies for a state with interests or for Code Pink, the radical leftwing NGO, bcz sometimes policy debate in Islamabad blurs the lines:
Are #Erdogan & #ImranKhan forcing a permanent Islamist nationalist tilt in Ankara & Islamabad and reducing their militaries' political roles that helped balance policies?
Two trends to watch. @jonathan_spyer's analysis is an excellent curtain raiser.
"We welcome #India's emergence as a leading global power and its role as a net security provider in the region."
#US returns to #Obama era's tight embrace of #India. Under #Trump, US tempered tech-related Indian immigration, and twisted India's arm on unfair trade practices.
Resumption of close #US-#India ties under #Biden administration means the #Pakistan-#America relationship will undergo a readjustment. #Afghanistan will anchor ties. But long-term outlook is up in the air, again. /1
#Pakistan failed to deal with #Trump admin which came close to Pakistani position on #Afghanistan; engaged it on #Kashmir. Under PM #ImranKhan govt, Pak showed reticence in engaging the US beyond Afghan peace process. Pak analysts routinely framed #CPEC as part of anti-#US bloc/2
#Pakistan has a sister city agreement with #India's port in #Chabahar. Pak strategic experts (incl retd diplomats/officers/academics) routinely float theories on joining a anti-#US bloc based on #CPEC & #Iran. But total blackout in our media on this:
Self-imposed censorship in Pakistani think tanks & media on important #Iran-related stories that directly impact national security means such stories can be published in #Turkey#Afghanistan or #Iraq or #Azerbaijan, but not in #Pakistan.