Thread by @_AhmedQuraishi

A foreign policy expert from #Iraq proposes a regional axis made up of #KSA #Egypt #Pakistan #Turkey to balance #Biden policies that apparently mark a return to Obama-era antagonism toward America's traditional allies.

#Israel might be added to this axis. /1

https://twitter.com/azzawil/status/1360577410194956290

This sparks a long overdue debate on why #America in the last part of #Bush admin and throughout #Obama years pushed its allies under the bus (#Egypt #Pakistan #KSA #Gulf #Turkey) & allowed hostile IRGC-QF militias to circle #Israel. /2

There is no logical answer. And if this theory initially seemed farfetched and conspiratorial, some #Biden admin signals showed it wants to put #America back on the same track of collision with its traditional Mideast allies, including Israel. /3

The US remains indispensable for Mideast stability. It helped curb Sunni jihadism by defeating Alqaeda and ISIS, and now confronting Shia jihadism by eliminating Soleimani & designating the IRGC. No one can do this without direct or indirect American role. /4

But at the same time America has allowed its historic Cold War victory in Afghanistan to be nearly rolled back, allowed Sunni+Shia jihadists to seize Iraq, & gave them victories from Lebanon to Egypt to Yemen. /5

In this mix, Gulf media by mid 2010s theorized that America might allow & even encourage the internal collapse of its allies (KSA Egypt Yemen Pakistan GCC Turkey) as part of some chaotic policy of aligning the US with ex-enemies (violent groups, Muslim Brotherhood, IRGC/Iran). /6

This latest idea indicates growing skepticism in the region about America's credibility as a dependable ally, & partially explains some realignments (Pakistan FM heading to Egypt today; UAE & Turkey flirting). /7

Realignments by America's traditional Mideast allies under #Biden admin don't aim to replace US role (not possible) but rather to convince the new WH not to follow the Obama-era antagonism toward regional allies. /8

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To prove my point, here's Exhibit A:

/9

https://twitter.com/Amena__Bakr/status/1361916409102630914?s=19