A foreign policy expert from #Iraq proposes a regional axis made up of #KSA #Egypt #Pakistan #Turkey to balance #Biden policies that apparently mark a return to Obama-era antagonism toward America's traditional allies.

#Israel might be added to this axis. /1
This sparks a long overdue debate on why #America in the last part of #Bush admin and throughout #Obama years pushed its allies under the bus (#Egypt #Pakistan #KSA #Gulf #Turkey) & allowed hostile IRGC-QF militias to circle #Israel. /2
There is no logical answer. And if this theory initially seemed farfetched and conspiratorial, some #Biden admin signals showed it wants to put #America back on the same track of collision with its traditional Mideast allies, including Israel. /3
The US remains indispensable for Mideast stability. It helped curb Sunni jihadism by defeating Alqaeda and ISIS, and now confronting Shia jihadism by eliminating Soleimani & designating the IRGC. No one can do this without direct or indirect American role. /4
But at the same time America has allowed its historic Cold War victory in Afghanistan to be nearly rolled back, allowed Sunni+Shia jihadists to seize Iraq, & gave them victories from Lebanon to Egypt to Yemen. /5
In this mix, Gulf media by mid 2010s theorized that America might allow & even encourage the internal collapse of its allies (KSA Egypt Yemen Pakistan GCC Turkey) as part of some chaotic policy of aligning the US with ex-enemies (violent groups, Muslim Brotherhood, IRGC/Iran). /6
This latest idea indicates growing skepticism in the region about America's credibility as a dependable ally, & partially explains some realignments (Pakistan FM heading to Egypt today; UAE & Turkey flirting). /7
Realignments by America's traditional Mideast allies under #Biden admin don't aim to replace US role (not possible) but rather to convince the new WH not to follow the Obama-era antagonism toward regional allies. /8

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To prove my point, here's Exhibit A:

/9

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More from @_AhmedQuraishi

15 Feb
#Pakistan-#Egypt FM-level talks.

Issues: #Libya-#Yemen-#Gulf-#Ethiopia-#Gaza-#Kashmir.

Robust military ties but overall weak political exchanges between #Cairo & #Islamabad.

Yet @ImranKhanPTI-@AlsisiOfficial governments have recently been in contact to upgrade cooperation.
#Pakistan & #Egypt revive stalled ties. Pakistani foreign minister meets President Al-Sisi. Agreement to launch high-level political consultations next month. #PakMilitary will participate in drills in Egypt in summer. /2

#Pakistan & #Egypt are often considered two players with imp roles in ensuring #Gulf stability, along regional & intl partners; can help in Mideast peace, in Yemen, in fighting extremism & extremist groups. These are recurring themes in discussions:
/3
Read 6 tweets
14 Feb
Timely Change: PM #ImranKhan abandons the neutrality mantra. His govt now openly supports allies like #Turkey vs #PKK & #KSA vs #Houthis. The earlier approach failed, & the credit for this policy change likely goes to Pres #Erdogan who asked for Pak support in #Syria last year.
Passive neutrality as a policy has hurt #Pakistan's interests. Refusing to participate in global politics but expecting international support is wishful thinking. Neutrality promoted by PM Imran Khan was misplaced. Now the idea is dying a natural death:
While changes in #Pakistan foreign policy on #Houthis+#PKK are welcome steps, policymakers need to decide if they make policies for a state with interests or for Code Pink, the radical leftwing NGO, bcz sometimes policy debate in Islamabad blurs the lines:
Read 4 tweets
12 Feb
#Turkey, #Pakistan: Inside the Ankara-Islamabad axis. By @jonathan_spyer.

Thoughts:
#Erdogan forced #Pakistan to abandon policy neutrality to condemn #Assad attack that killed #Turkish soldiers.

And asked Islamabad to act against #Iran's #Zeynabioun /1

flip.it/69ylSq
#Turkish & #Pakistani elites+militaries generally are pro-West liberals. This has changed with distinct religious nationalism of #Erdogan+#ImranKhan. Top #Lebanon analyst Hazem Saghieh feels both endangered Muslims in Europe last year. /2
@jonathan_spyer
english.alarabiya.net/en/in-translat…
Are #Erdogan & #ImranKhan forcing a permanent Islamist nationalist tilt in Ankara & Islamabad and reducing their militaries' political roles that helped balance policies?

Two trends to watch. @jonathan_spyer's analysis is an excellent curtain raiser.

Read 5 tweets
9 Feb
"We welcome #India's emergence as a leading global power and its role as a net security provider in the region."

#US returns to #Obama era's tight embrace of #India. Under #Trump, US tempered tech-related Indian immigration, and twisted India's arm on unfair trade practices.
Resumption of close #US-#India ties under #Biden administration means the #Pakistan-#America relationship will undergo a readjustment. #Afghanistan will anchor ties. But long-term outlook is up in the air, again. /1

#Pakistan failed to deal with #Trump admin which came close to Pakistani position on #Afghanistan; engaged it on #Kashmir. Under PM #ImranKhan govt, Pak showed reticence in engaging the US beyond Afghan peace process. Pak analysts routinely framed #CPEC as part of anti-#US bloc/2
Read 7 tweets
7 Feb
31 Jan 2021: #Indian delegation in #Chabahar.

2 Feb: #Iran defense minister in #India.

3 Feb: #IRGC claims a cross-border strike.

Blackout on these stories in #Pakistan, part of the self-styled censorship on any news related to #Iran.

They laugh at us in #Iraq & #Azerbaijan. ImageImageImageImage
#Pakistan has a sister city agreement with #India's port in #Chabahar. Pak strategic experts (incl retd diplomats/officers/academics) routinely float theories on joining a anti-#US bloc based on #CPEC & #Iran. But total blackout in our media on this:
Self-imposed censorship in Pakistani think tanks & media on important #Iran-related stories that directly impact national security means such stories can be published in #Turkey #Afghanistan or #Iraq or #Azerbaijan, but not in #Pakistan.

Exhibit A:

Read 7 tweets
30 Jan
#China wants its National People's Congress #NPC members to help #Pakistan provide "effective oversight" of #CPEC projects by creating a joint parliamentary committee. This will be in addition to the oversight by the @CPECAuthority. /1

tribune.com.pk/story/2281663/…
This is the 1st time #China engages #Pakistan parliament in a joint oversight idea for #CPEC. Proposal was floated by #NPC Chairman Li. The official handle of Pak Parliament confirmed this. The Chinese emb tweet of the event where idea was discussed /2
During the virtual meeting, and aside from a new role for #NPC in #CPEC oversight, Chairman Li Zhanshu of National People's Congress also received assurances from his #Pakistan counterpart re security provided to #China personnel. /3

Read 5 tweets

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