Thread by @Javanmardi75

How the 🇮🇱Israeli defense deals with the threat of #Hezbollah's precision missiles.
PART 4— (last part, 18 tweets)
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In contrast, determining a red line when it comes to #accuracy is more elusive. 1

Certainly when that "existential threat" does not exist in its classical form. For comparison, #Israel did not launch a pre-emptive strike against the threat of tunnels from #Gaza (until it saw terrorists exiting a tunnel near Kibbutz Sufa and launched Operation Eitan),
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nor a pre-emptive war on Palestinian terror, despite hundreds of deaths (until Seder attack). Protective wall).#Israel refrained from launching a similar counterattack on another strategic threat - the enormous amount of #chemical weapons that #Syria held until the Civil War. 3

In #Israel, it was estimated (and rightly so) that #Syria would refrain from using this weapon, and would be content with producing a mutual deterrence equation.
Many experts believe that the exact ones pose a different kind of threat to Israel. 4

It is no longer possible to say that "the rockets will rust in the warehouses," and action is called for. Quite a bit of it is already being done; aggressively, & in diplomatic components; intelligence cooperation & exerting pressure on governments in the West & consciousness. 5

The presence of hundreds of precision missiles in the hands of the #Iranian axis, and in particular in the hands of #Hezbollah, which can cause widespread civilian damage in #Israel and paralyze vital systems, is a strategic threat that must not be allowed to develop. 6

The defining event in the context of #accuracy is the #Iranian attack on #Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure in September 2019. Dozens of precision missiles and cruise missiles then hit Aramco facilities and shut down about half of Saudi production capacity. 7

#Iran has indeed tried to distance itself from testimony, and those who took responsibility for the attack were the #Houthis in Yemen, its protégés; But solid information indicated that the missiles were launched from Iranian soil. 8

Iranians realized in this incident that accuracy was the next thing, so they decided to attack it on all fronts. #Cruise missiles (or UAVs) have already been handed over to the Houthis in Yemen, and are found in lower numbers in Iraq and Syria, and possibly in Lebanon as well. 9

Israel is not in Saudi's situation. #Israel is likely to know of such an attack in advance. They have an impressive ability to thwart & can attack before launch, they have the ability to detect & defend, but the threat as a whole is problematic & requires a shift in strategy. 10

Four possible #strategies that #Israel has:
-deterrence (making Nasrallah understand accurate missile strikes will lead to the destruction of Lebanon);
-Protection (more investment in interceptors and other means);
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-Strikes and other actions as part of the CDC (meaning postponing the end), and a -preemptive strike (take Hezbollah the ability, but will put Israel in danger of war).
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#Hezbollah doesn’t want a long campaign but painful blows that shorten the duration of the war & its damage, & for that it may be enough for a small amount of accuracy, which will be used alongside a mass of statistical fire and ground infiltration into Israeli territory. 13

The problem is that with a small number of rockets #Israel is easy to deal with, both offensively & defensively. In the face of a large number of accurate, the story will be completely different. Israel will find it difficult to locate and destroy them all. 14

A possible way to address this threat other than through an initiated blow is to seize opportunities. Assuming that #Israel & #Hezbollah will soon degenerate into “battle days”, Israel can seize the opportunity & act not only on a one-off basis, but more broadly. 15

This is the practice in #Gaza, taking advantage of every negligible event on the border for a response to deprive #Hamas of production & intensification capabilities. In #Lebanon, the dilemma is several times greater, because of the magnitude of the threat & the cost of war. 16

If #Hezbollah continues at the current pace of missile production, reaching the #RedLine will take years. But if it accelerates, or moves to industrial production in Lebanon - the duration will be significantly shortened.
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In such a case, #Israel will be required to decide whether to act to eradicate the greatest and most dangerous conventional threat it faces, or to live with it. —18 —END.