PS: The commentator should be commended for making the distinction between @anders_aslund and me. In numerous other comments, Aslund and me are either mixed up, or seen as constituting one and the same person (which is an even more flattering assumption).
2/7: Im Lichte der niedrigen ökonomischen Kosten und hohen innenpolitischen Gewinne einer gewaltsamen #Eskalation, wären ungetätigte #Interventionen in #Südossetien sowie #Abchasien 2008 und auf der #Krim sowie im #Donezbecken 2014 realpolitische Unterlassungssünden gewesen.
3/7: Angesichts der sinkenden Popularität Putins aufgrund (in der offiziellen Statistik Russlands beschönigter) humanitärer, sozialer und ökonomischer Folgen der #Coronakrise sowie der Verwandlung #Nawalny|s in einen politischen #Märtyrer, hat sich seit 2020 der Einsatz erhöht.
1/7: The most frustrating aspect of the #Kremlin's current escalation vis-a-vis #Ukraine is the rationality of its action and simplicity of the situation: The #EuropeanUnion has the economic means to stop #Putin.
2/7: #Russia's economy and budget are dependent on income from Russian energy exports to the EU. However, the EU will not use this leverage - even though the collective costs of doing so may not be high any more, in view of #LNG, renewables, contingency plans etc.
3/7: When the EU did impose some moderately serious sanctions in 2014, that was not a response to #Russia's aggression against #Ukraine. It was a punishment for Moscow's killing of more than 200 EU citizens on the #MH17 flight sho by a Russian missile over Ukraine, in July 2014.
3/5: Yet, the volumes and papers published in @ibidem11's #SPPS during the last three years will get additional @Scopus quotations during the next years. More monographs and collections are in print and preparation: ibidem.eu/en/reihen/gese….
3/6: Both, the so-called Black-Green Coalition, i.e. a joint government of the @cducsubt and @GrueneBundestag, and the so-called Traffic Light Coalition, i.e. a joint government of @diegruenen, @spdde and @fdpbt, would be a first in Berlin.
1/4: This could be the preparation of a military escalation in southern #Ukraine that would transform the Ukrainian-Russian conflict from a Russian "delegated inter-state #war" (@HauterJakob) into an ordinary inter-state war between the two countries. ytro.ru/news/life/2021…
2/4: After a successful Russian court trial, the #Kremlin would claim to have the legal right to receive fresh water from the #Dnipro river (which starts in #Russia). Kyiv would not respect such a Russian court decision.
3/4: #Russia could invade southern mainland Ukraine to implement a respective court order and try to capture the now dry #NorthCrimeanCanal from the Dnipro to #Crimea. This would mean the first, from Moscow's side, official employment of regular Russian troops in dryland Ukraine.