1/7: #PutinVerstehen: Das Verhalten von #WladimirPutin war 2008 in #Georgien und 2014 in der #Ukraine machtpolitisch rational - und ist es heute ebenso. @RusVerstehen @Russland_Forum @Boell_Russia @ostexperte @DGO_Berlin @junge_dgo @dw_russian @UISweden @FensterNachO @dekoder_org
2/7: Im Lichte der niedrigen ökonomischen Kosten und hohen innenpolitischen Gewinne einer gewaltsamen #Eskalation, wären ungetätigte #Interventionen in #Südossetien sowie #Abchasien 2008 und auf der #Krim sowie im #Donezbecken 2014 realpolitische Unterlassungssünden gewesen.
3/7: Angesichts der sinkenden Popularität Putins aufgrund (in der offiziellen Statistik Russlands beschönigter) humanitärer, sozialer und ökonomischer Folgen der #Coronakrise sowie der Verwandlung #Nawalny|s in einen politischen #Märtyrer, hat sich seit 2020 der Einsatz erhöht.
4/7: Im Vorlauf der anstehenden #Staatsdumawahlen im September 2021 hat sich der relative innenpolitische Gewinn einer aussenpolitischen #Eskalation vergrößert. Daher dürften sich die Spannungen zwischen #Russland und der #Ukraine bis auf weiteres fortsetzen bzw. verschärfen.
5/7: Im schlimmsten Fall verwandelt sich der derzeit "delegierte" Krieg Russlands gegen die #Ukraine in einen traditionellen, offen zwischenstaatlichen #Krieg. Eine neuerliche #Expansion könnte etwa die Eroberung des #Nordkrimkanal|s in der südlichen #Festlandukraine bedeuten.
6/7: Ein derartiger neuer internationaler Spannungsanstieg sowie zusätzlicher russischer Geländegewinn und militärischer Sieg in der #Südukraine könnte derzeit für den #Kreml wahltaktisch und machtstrategisch attraktiv sein.
7/7: Die humanitär begründete Eroberung eines Zugangs zum ukrainischen Fluss #Dnipro wäre eher als neuer Sieg Putins darstellbar als ein langwieriger und innenpolitisch wenig gewinnbringender Bau von #Entsalzungsanlagen zur #Süßwasserversorgung der #Krim mit #Schwarzmeerwasser.

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More from @UmlandAndreas

16 Apr
1/7: The most frustrating aspect of the #Kremlin's current escalation vis-a-vis #Ukraine is the rationality of its action and simplicity of the situation: The #EuropeanUnion has the economic means to stop #Putin.
2/7: #Russia's economy and budget are dependent on income from Russian energy exports to the EU. However, the EU will not use this leverage - even though the collective costs of doing so may not be high any more, in view of #LNG, renewables, contingency plans etc.
3/7: When the EU did impose some moderately serious sanctions in 2014, that was not a response to #Russia's aggression against #Ukraine. It was a punishment for Moscow's killing of more than 200 EU citizens on the #MH17 flight sho by a Russian missile over Ukraine, in July 2014.
Read 10 tweets
13 Apr
1/5: Having been registered with @Scopus in 2019, the @ibidem11 Press book series "Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society" (#SPPS) has, until the end of 2020, accumulated 147 entries in this citation index. @icceesorg @aseeestudies @BASEES @DGO_Berlin @ASN_Org @AAUS_says
2/5: The monographs & volume chapters listed here were published by #SPPS in 2018-20: scopus.com/sourceid/21100…. So far, SPPS's ranking in three relevant #Scopus categories "#History," "#PoliticalScience and #InternationalRelations," & "Political Science and #Sociology" is modest.
3/5: Yet, the volumes and papers published in @ibidem11's #SPPS during the last three years will get additional @Scopus quotations during the next years. More monographs and collections are in print and preparation: ibidem.eu/en/reihen/gese….
Read 5 tweets
27 Mar
1/6: The current German Center-Left/Center-Right so-called "#GrandCoalition" #GroKo is now without a #majority in the polls. This increases the likelihood that #Merkel's departure in fall 2021 will not only usher in a change of government and #chancellor.
pollytix.de/wahltrend/?fbc…
2/6: The #Bundestag elections in September 2021 will seemingly also herald a new era in #Germanfederalpolitics - in the form of an entirely novel #governmental #coalition. Image
3/6: Both, the so-called Black-Green Coalition, i.e. a joint government of the @cducsubt and @GrueneBundestag, and the so-called Traffic Light Coalition, i.e. a joint government of @diegruenen, @spdde and @fdpbt, would be a first in Berlin. Image
Read 7 tweets
13 Mar
1/4: This could be the preparation of a military escalation in southern #Ukraine that would transform the Ukrainian-Russian conflict from a Russian "delegated inter-state #war" (@HauterJakob) into an ordinary inter-state war between the two countries.
ytro.ru/news/life/2021…
2/4: After a successful Russian court trial, the #Kremlin would claim to have the legal right to receive fresh water from the #Dnipro river (which starts in #Russia). Kyiv would not respect such a Russian court decision.
3/4: #Russia could invade southern mainland Ukraine to implement a respective court order and try to capture the now dry #NorthCrimeanCanal from the Dnipro to #Crimea. This would mean the first, from Moscow's side, official employment of regular Russian troops in dryland Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct 20
20th century problems on 21st century #Crimea: Unlike in Soviet times, #watersupply is not any longer a complicated infrastructural, but today a simple financial issue. 1/4
A broad variety of #desalinationtechnologies is today allowing many countries with insufficient #freshwater reserves, e.g. Israel, Saudi Arabia or Iraq, to live on desalinated sea water. Yet, #Moscow is unwilling to invest money into building #Crimean d
#desalination plants. 2/4
Instead, #Kremlinmedia portrays falling #freshwatersupply on Crimea as a #humanitariandisaster caused by #Ukrainian stubbornness. Many brainwashed #Russians may accept this geopolitical rather than financial-technical explanation of #Crimea's principal infrastructural issue. 3/4
Read 5 tweets

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