1/7: The most frustrating aspect of the #Kremlin's current escalation vis-a-vis #Ukraine is the rationality of its action and simplicity of the situation: The #EuropeanUnion has the economic means to stop #Putin. 
2/7: #Russia's economy and budget are dependent on income from Russian energy exports to the EU. However, the EU will not use this leverage - even though the collective costs of doing so may not be high any more, in view of #LNG, renewables, contingency plans etc.
3/7: When the EU did impose some moderately serious sanctions in 2014, that was not a response to #Russia's aggression against #Ukraine. It was a punishment for Moscow's killing of more than 200 EU citizens on the #MH17 flight sho by a Russian missile over Ukraine, in July 2014.
4/7: As long as #Russia does not kill, during the current escalation, many EU citizens, as it did in 2014, the EU will not get its act together and will not impose serious sanctions. Putin & Co. know this - and that is why they are escalating.
5/7: The economic costs of a war are low. The political gains for #Putin's regime from a victorious war against #Ukraine are high. The war distracts the electorate from Russia's many domestic problems, before the #StateDuma elections in September 2021.
6/7: At least in the view of some people in Moscow, it would be irrational for the Kremlin to not go to war. Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2014 improved regime stability. Why not try a second time and simply be more careful to not kill EU citizens as in 2014? @ukraineoffice
.@threadreaderapp #unroll @MartinKragh1 @FLojdquist @BLSchmitt @A_SHEKH0VTS0V @jcbehrends @maria_shagina @fuecks @MarcelHVanHerpe @meduza_en @JulianRoepcke @jenssiegert @PavloKlimkin @mattia_n @ukraine_world @KyivPost @GresselGustav @UkrInFuture @KatyaYushchenko @V_Solovey
PS: Among others, the Berlin economist #RolandGoetz has extensively and scholarly discussed (mainly in German language though) the potential feasibility and effectiveness of #EU energy #sanctions against #Russia. See: fu-berlin.academia.edu/RolandGötz/Ene…
PPS: For a deep delve into the effects of the EU's and US's financial sanctions against Russia since 2014, see the recent paper by @erikandermo and @MartinKragh1 @UISweden: tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
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