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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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6 Jun, 6 tweets, 8 min read
Europe is already very wet. Its about to get a lot wetter.

The 2021 #EuropeBigWet is already underway. Now the Atlantic is about to fully flood the zone.
This is a 16-Day animation starting today and running till June 22nd. Its going to be a very wet #SummerSolstice.

#EuropeWeather #Europe #Weather

#Portugal #Spain #UK #Ireland #France #Spain #Belgium #Germany #Poland #Italy #Switzerland #Hungary #Ukraine #Roumania #Czechia
This is the GEFS ensemble rain forecast for Europe also over 16 days. When the computer simulations think together the conclusion seems to be that it is going to rain everywhere every day.
Add it all together and this is what you get.
Warm wet air = thundertstorms. Here you can see the K-Index forecast for Europe for the first 10 days of this period.

This = lots and lots of thunderstorms.
Satellite pictures of Europe over the past 3 days. We already have a lot of storms.

Watch them in replay on @zoom_earth here >> zoom.earth/#view=48.8,-22…

& monitor lightning strikes live here >> blitzortung.org/en/live_lightn…

This is what #ClimateChange for Europe looks like.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
8 Jun
Today's forecasts for #NorthAfrica, and the #HornOfAfrica follow.

This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.

#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile
This image this evening shows a cluster of #ArabianStorms around Medina yet again and storms over Yemen. Storms are also forming over Ethiopia but this is not yet the rainy season. The westerly wind can also be seen - and my understanding is this will eventually bring big rains.
Read 17 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
8 Jun
Today's #EuropeBigWet update. Russia is getting pummelled. Italy is on fire with thunderstorms and central Europe is getting busy.

For context click on the hashtag for earlier episodes. This has been building up for a while. Thread....
It started modestly even though the warm air over Europe is increasingly saturated with moisture. And then as the day got hotter the thunderstorms got active. Image
This afternoon Italy in particular looks as if it is undergoing something potentially rather dangerous.
Read 10 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
8 Jun
This thread needs some additional context lest it be interpreted as suggesting that #KelloMedia @KelloMedia is an unreliable source.

But deep fakes are a problem and authenticating recordings and videos in this day and age is a significant problem.
This recording stands out because:
a) its explosive nature and
b) because of its wide dissemination and the implications that come from it in relation to the fairness of the election.
c) because it was explicitly denied by the Prime Minister.
The also addresses two wider issues, the first of which relates to elections everywhere, and the second which relates to the specific conditions of this election.

In the CPJ safety handbook for journalists misinformation is directly addressed. cpj.org/2021/06/ethiop… Image
Read 36 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
8 Jun
After acknowledging this recording is fake
@KjetilTronvoll tweeted this BBC news report based on it.

Media and those involved in peace & conflict need to be careful with unverified information when engaged in an information warfare environment.
Here is his earlier tweet. He claims that a high ranking party member of the Prosperity Party authenticated it for him.

The lesson in this is simple: If you don't know whether incendiary information is true or false don't spread it. Image
The @guardian has now published a ill-considered incendiary op-ed by @KjetilTronvoll containing his reckons on a subject he doesn't appear to be treating with care. He seeks resignations over a complex war the details of which remain far from clear. theguardian.com/global-develop…
Read 14 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
7 Jun
Let me get this straight professor. You now acknowledge inadvertently spreading misinformation/disinformation in the lead up to this election, you continue to accuse the #Ethiopian Govt. of engaging in it.
As a professor of peace/conflict studies you would be aware that this is Ethiopia’s first shot at a real free and fair democratic election, and you would be aware of the already heightened domestic very lethal tensions, and not just in Tigray. And yet you continue to stoke these.
The Ethiopian Govt is clear they have asked Eritrean troops to leave but they have not yet left, even though undertakings to do so were provided to the U.S.

It is also clear that Tigrayan forces initiated this war and continue - with assistance unknown - to pursue it.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
7 Jun
Today's #Sahara & #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.

It is now two weeks till the first open democratic #Ethiopian election.
To open here's a high resolution satellite image of the Nile Basin from Cairo to Lake Victoria including Eastern Ethiopia where the #GERD dam is located, and where the Blue Nile - source of much of the Nile's flow - originates in Lake Tana (the heart shaped lake).
We will zoom in on the #HornOfAfrica starting with the wider picture. On the left side of this image you can see a #WesternSahara water transport event which is significantly impacting weather conditions in Europe. (See more in the attached thread )
Read 17 tweets

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