Thread by @Cicke69

How much is #Ukraine similar to #Syria?

Back in 2016. power of Bashar Al-#Assad was on his last legs. Insurgents took over the almost entire country, leaving him with roughly 15% of land under government control.

by Slavyangrad
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All big cities were lost or heavily contested. The enemy was as close as two kilometers to the center of #Damascus.

#Syria #ukraine
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Then #Russians came. Slowly but methodically, they started to bombard insurgents, which we can call a conglomerate of various ideological and interest groups, including designated terrorists such as Jabhat Al Nusra and #ISIS.

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The campaign was slow but deadly. Several hundred thousand “rebels” as #West liked to call them, were sent to meet their maker.

#Syria #Russia #ISis #AlQaeda
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There were setbacks, then, as well. Let’s remind ourselves of the loss of #Palmira, battles for Al Shaer gas fields, even #Aleppo was critical at one point.

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But Syrians endured with the help of #Russians and now Al #Assad can be happy. Not only he remained in power, but his forces controlled around 70% of #Syria (without #Kurds whose allegiance is doubtful), part of #Idlib province ...
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... where former rehabilitated terrorists made their haven, and the part near the #Iraqi border where “freedom fighters” were saved from annihilation by #USA troops. So, what is the similarity with #Ukraine?

Map by @A7_Mirza
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Pro-#Russian rebels controlled around 15% of the land (now) and were predestined to be wiped out in repeated operation “Storm” which successfully ethnic cleansed #Serbs from #Croatia.

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The operation started with magnificent strikes on strategic and tactical air strikes on targets in #Ukraine, almost decapitating their air defense and a solid amount of military stocks of ammo. But, soon blunder came, which we all remember, and the approach changed.
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#Blitzkrieg obviously failed and slowly grinding through #Ukrainian fortified positions was introduced. Was it effective? It was certainly. A huge number of #Ukraine military, territorial defense units, volkssturm, and #nazi battalions suffered heavy losses.
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A large amount of military hardware is destroyed. #Shoigu said that little over 50.000 #Ukrainian troops died so far. Obviously, into calculation were not put previously named formations. Although suffering appalling casualties...

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... #Ukraine was able to recover through waves of mobilization, despite many of its military men running out of the country. It used the same method that the #Soviets employed in the disastrous summer of 1941 when the majority of the army was destroyed or captured.
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It sent everything that can hold a rifle to the front, not expecting them to beat the #Germans, but to slow them and buy time to train new and better troops as a replacement.

by Slavyangrad
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#Ukrainian weaponry was replaced by emptying huge eastern #European stockpiles, although not all, and a chronic deficit of heavy equipment is still a burden for the UA army. They received big quantities of weapons from western states, which made their situation bearable.
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They were able to mount a big counterattack in the #Kharkov area (if we can call it that, attacking empty areas and rear guard units of already retreated #Russian troops) thus almost liberating it entirely.
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Semi mobilization followed in #Russia with a referendum in 4 areas that voted for unification with Motherland. This is a summary of the situation. Till now? However, what after?
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One thing is certain, #Russia is going to strike hard and recover the parts of the territory of the newly acquired land. Is it in October or, November, we will see. When those mobilized 300.000 troops were deemed ready.
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Keep in mind that those are combat troops purely, not combined with logistics. The strategic goal of #Russia is clear. It can’t leave #Ukraine anymore.

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Not only because #Ukrainians proved to be more capable than what first appeared, but if #Russia freezes the conflict, as we heard rumors the last few days, and leave a job unfinished, it will make a precise situation that it tried to avoid by starting SMO in the first place.
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#Ukraine, armed with a modern weaponry, possibly, a member of #NATO, and most importantly, probably with nuclear weapons on its territory.

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The self-fulfilling prophecy is in this case, out of question. #Russia doesn’t have a choice anymore. It cant leave #Ukraine in its present state and form because it will domed itself.
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The cards were played in such a way that #Russia must finish those goals it set up before the beginning of SMO. Denazification and demilitarization. Translating that to plain language means, capture/kill/make run, but preferably the something of the first two options.
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There is no viable solution for #Russia to make a way out of the situation anymore. Indeed, this becomes a conflict of existence between the two states. Neither one sees its future without the destruction of the other one.
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Something that was planned to be a localized conflict of medium intensity, will transform into a fight for survival. Why am I so pessimistic? Because we did not see many #Ukrainian prisoners nor #Russians for that matter.

by Slavyangrad
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Each side is now planning to fight to the last. No reconciliation is possible. The winner will take all from the table. #Arestovich was bragging that they could mobilize 5 million men. So as #Russians. What will be collateral damage, an expression so dear to the #West?
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Well, possibly, a significant part of that #West itself, and then big parts of the world. And we all know what happened last time when millions of #Russian with weapons came in the direction of the west.
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The only problem was that at that time where nuclear weapons were in very small amounts. Stockpiles are huge now. So, back to the beginning. Why similarity with #Syria?
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Because, in the few years which it spend there, #Russia killed hundreds of thousands of terrorists and nobody is talking about getting rid of Al #Assad anymore.

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#Russia, although, it has time, it doesn’t have the luxury of so much time. Hundreds of thousands of #Ukrainians will be killed in a much smaller period.

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#Russia escalated conflict with mobilization and showed the world that is in business. It can escalate again and again. I am afraid of the next escalation.

by Slavyangrad
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