##Iranian state media BREAKING NEWS:

#Iran and #SaudiArabia agreed to re-establish ties and re-open embassies. 🇮🇷 🇸🇦

IF confirmed, this was months in the making but held back by the Saudis, asking for big #Yemen move from #Tehran. IF confirmed, #Yemen news coming soon, too.
Again, IF true, this is a confirmation that the WSJ article on #Riyadh normalizing ties with #Israel was wishful thinking (in both #Biden administration & #Netanyahu)
Also, rumour has it that #China mediated this alleged normalization between #SaudiArabia & #Iran. That would be more #Riyadh & #Tehran wanting to give a diplomatic win to #Beijing. If this really happened it was more a bilateral process, with direct engagement.
The official text of the #China-hosted #Iran & #SaudiArabia deal says that they agreed on a ROADMAP to re-opening Embassies, with the next follow-up meeting at Foreign Minister level in two months.

Slow down a little bit. Image
Here we are with official communications from #SaudiArabia on their deal with #Iran: spa.gov.sa/w1867373

This is what it says:

The two sides agree to restore diplomatic relations within 2 months but they also agreed that this will be activated in Foreign Ministers meeting

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More from @Cinzia_Bianco

Feb 22
@ECFRMena & @ECFRAsia cross-over! Me & @a_bachulska wrote a short piece on #China - #GCC relations *seen from both sides.* We thought there was an abundance of partial viewpoints but really scarcity of strategic comprehensive overview. 1/

ecfr.eu/article/an-ope…
The first thing we do is put to rest the once ubiquitous argument that #China-#Gulf relations are only economic. In fact, they are grounded in compatible visions of #multipolarity. A year after #RussiaInvadedUkraine, multipolarity is the real winner! 2/

tinyurl.com/9dkx6xv3
#Beijing is the 1st #trade partner for the monarchies & invested in key infrastructures, ie acquired 20% of largest #port in #SaudiArabia (Jeddah). But #GCC leaders are also wary of Chinese reliability-ie obstacles to sign #FTA despite #Xi insistence. 3/

tinyurl.com/9dkx6xv3
Read 7 tweets
Feb 19
Ce soir à 21h connectez-vous sur France5 et france.tv pour un super film sur #MbZ et les #Emirats on @lemondeenface⁩. Honoré de figurer parmi les commentateurs avec ⁦@Abdulkhaleq_UAE⁩, ⁦@benjbarthe⁩, ⁦@berlinest⁩ & autore. CC: ⁦@ECFRParis
Read 4 tweets
May 13, 2022
BREAKING: #UAE President #KhalifabinZayed just died. Crown Prince of #AbuDhabi since 1969, and Abu Dhabi Ruler & President since his father Sheikh Zayed died in 2004. The #BurjKhalifa was initially named to honor him.

A few words on him + what happens now in a thread. 1/
After #KhalifabinZayed suffered a stroke in 2014, his younger brother Mohammad bin Zayed (#MbZ) became de facto leader of the #UAE. Now the Federal Supreme Council (including the rulers of the 7 Emirates) will ratify #MbZ as official President of the #UAE. Basically guaranteed 2/
The more interesting thing is who will be appointed #UAE Crown Prince. Options include #MbZ’s brother & #security czar #TahnoonBinZayed, another brother, or #MbZ’s son #KhalidBinZayed.

While #SaudiArabia moved to primogeniturial succession, the #UAE might do the opposite. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Oct 30, 2021
A thread on imagining impacts of the #Metaverse on “my” world. How will the job of a #geopolitics analyst be different? How will this new platform change international relations in general and the #Gulf in particular? Feel free to add your take, it’s simply thinking out loud.
1/
First, meetings & events. #Zoom events are here to stay, alongside in-person ones. But a digital event on #Metaverse could be so much better and closer to a real-life experience, enhanced by instant access to resources 2/
Then, outputs. Will it make sense to write papers when you can produce an interactive output combining texts, recordings, images/videos in the form of a meta-research on #geopolitics on #Metaverse? 3/
Read 8 tweets
Oct 26, 2021
It’s out! 🎊
My new @ecfr paper on how #Europe can ride the #climate momentum in the #Gulf deploying its #GreenDeal to meet #NetZero & #geopolitical objectives in the region ➡️ bit.ly/2XOK8bG
Read b4 #COP26 #COP26Glasgow
Few take-aways 1/ Image
Good that #SaudiArabia & #UAE have pledged #NetZero but #GCC total domestic emissions are only 2.4% of world’s. The #EU needs to focus on the emissions they export, mostly to #China, I argue how: bit.ly/2XOK8bG 2/
As shown by the #SaudiGreenInitiative & #MiddleEastGreenInitiative + #UAE willingness to host #COP 28, the #GCC leaders now see a political value in embracing the #climate agenda. This paper described what each #GCC country is actually *doing* about it: bit.ly/2XOK8bG 3/
Read 14 tweets
Sep 3, 2021
#EU Foreign Ministers meet today for #Gymnich. They will discuss #Afghanistan. But then they will discuss the #Gulf. This is a rare occurrence - EU Ministers have discussed #JCPOA often but very rarely regional geopolitics between the #GCC, #Iraq & #Iran. They do now because… ⬇️
…because of the #Baghdad_summit last week and #France’s involvement in it. Most in #EU that #Iraq can be the hub for regional diplomacy in the #Gulf, building on talks btwn #SaudiArabia & #Iran. Reality is that with no progress on #Yemen these talks are shallow but ⬇️
…but I welcome choice to discuss #Gulf geopolitics at a #EU level. Hope there is some realism in acknowledging this is a security matter, not a diplomatic misunderstanding. #US retrenchment will inevitably lead to more #Russia & #China in the Gulf. It is already happening. So ⬇️
Read 5 tweets

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