,
17 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Have been banging this drum for a while re Brexit, but the single most important factor in UK politics at the moment is time 1/
The single overriding reason why May is safe is that there isn’t the time, within the Brexit process, for a Tory leadership contest 2/
(And the main contenders/factions will never agree to a coronation a la Howard, esp not after May cakewalk) 3/
But even with continuity of leadership, Brexit progress is bound to be slow to the point of glacial 4/
That’s cos time works for EU. Closer they can push things to wire, more likely it is UK will be forced to accept their ideal deal 5/
Which is status quo with rule-taking but not rule-making, or else a whacking great fee for a version of Brexit that actually means Brexit 6/
Of course they don’t want a total breakdown of trade. But it would hurt them less than us - plus they need it to look like we’re punished 7/
This dynamic strengthened by May’s weakness, but mostly built into Art 50. We’d be getting disappointed noises from Paris/Berlin anyway 8/
Because time works for them and money works for us. So they want us to commit money, or else see the clock run down 9/
And of course the more the clock runs down, the greater the pressure on May and govt, from Labour and various Tory Brexit factions 10/
Meanwhile Corbyn & Remainers think that if they can ramp up pressure too, they can topple May/Tories, derail Brexit, or use b) do to a) 11/
Which is why you had cynical spectacle of many UK MEPs voting against moving Brexit negotiations on, putting party interest > country 12/
In conclusion: May safer than she looks, but this is only the start of the trouble/pressure/problems. 13/
Because tough as Brexit will be under current circs, without her there it becomes even tougher. 14/14
Also as @mrdavidwhitley points out, 'We respect referendum but Tories f***d up negotiations' is obvious Lab/Remain pretext for staying in
Oh - and one other thing. EU also want us in a position where we have to say yes to all their regulations to keep single market compliance..
..including all the really stupid, empire-building ones we blocked or watered down while we were at the table (and there were loads)
