Because writing this for @TheTimes (thetimes.co.uk/article/believ…) and going on @BBCBreakfast (& other outlets) to defend our train system didn’t do enough to my notifications, here’s a short thread about #railfares
(Or, if brevity isn’t your thing, you could read this excellent briefing note from the @cpsthinktank team cps.org.uk/files/reports/…)
First up, you won’t find anyone inside the industry, or outside it, who argues that the model is perfect. Grayling himself says in @Telegraph today that ‘it is now clear that the franchising model cannot be the path for the future’
This is why independent Williams Review is currently looking at the structure of the industry. We’ve urged them to promote on-rail competition via open access – the both the rail regulator & the Competition and Markets Authority agree with us that it would be good for commuters.
(For reasons why see our report ‘Rail’s Second Chance’ cps.org.uk/publications/r…)
But there are two big things to flag. The first is that (whisper it) our rail network is not actually that bad. Eurobarometer surveys consistently show high satisfaction ratings – higher than all other big European rail networks. This is the latest, from last year. 
Passengers are also voting with their feet. User numbers have doubled since privatisation, and rail has almost doubled its share of all passenger journeys.
Yes, we have problems with punctuality (20th/26 in an EU survey in 2016). But that’s largely a side effect of the fact we use our track more effectively and intensively than pretty much everyone else. Pushing through more trains mean less slack in the system when things go wrong.
And even with that caveat we still absolutely thump the French and Germans on satisfaction ratings re punctuality/reliability, frequency of trains, quality of stations (though not on getting a seat…).
It’s not just about satisfation ratings, either. Punctuality fell significantly in 2018, partly due to the retimetabling shambles (see comments re franchising above) and bad weather. But it was still much, much higher than in dog days of Railtrack. theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/d…
In fact the EU, pre-Brexit, was sending delegations over here to learn from us how to run better railways for less subsidy than the rest of its members are managing. True fact.
And yes, prices are high and getting higher. That’s painful for commuters. But it’s also partly a result of a decision to make them pay the price of their own journey, rather than have it subsidised by the general taxpayer.
This is why saying ‘we’ve got highest prices in Europe’ is misleading – in Europe people are mostly paying for trains through taxes, not tickets. In UK, it’s the reverse – and this is from 2016, so proportion even higher now given withdrawal of subsidy.
Also, commuters tend to be richer than the rest. So it’s not obvious why poorer people should pay more in subsidy to cut their fares.
Second big point: while our rail network needs improvement, renationalisation is a slogan rather than a solution.
For all the talk about evil franchise operators draining money out, the contracts they’re under mean they’re often acting more as contractors than actual operators – effectively being paid a management fee for running railways according to govt prescription.
The 3.1% fare hike today, for example, is happening because government says that’s the figure. And it’s using RPI (a bad, high measure of inflation) because that’s the measure government likes – and the measure in all the contracts running throughout the rail system.
(Also, as @jimpickard points out, Tories have at least kept fare rises to RPI, whereas Labour jacked them up beyond it)
I actually agree with @AndyMcDonaldMP that we should raise fares by CPI rather than RPI. And that the way to cut ticket prices for consumers is to reduce the cost base.
But here’s the question for Labour. I was on @bbcbreakfast today with @We_OwnIt, which campaigns against private ownership. Their founder is – shock! – a Corbynista. They are partly funded – double shock! – by the unions.
Similarly, here’s @jeremycorbyn at King’s Cross today with the ‘Association of British Commuters’ (@ABCommuters). The commuters in question being – as far as I can make out – fairly hardcore Corbyn supporters.
Here’s another pic from the event, with them campaigning with their good friends from the RMT.
The late Bob Crow explicitly committed the RMT to fighting for RPI (rmt.org.uk/about/policies…), and its position hasn’t changed. Because switching to CPI – the rate of inflation experienced by the rest of us in our wages and shopping baskets – would mean less money for its members.
So if the RMT and other unions – and indeed @jeremycorbyn – want to ‘end the great rail rip-off’, will they moderate their own wage demands, which are a significant component of rising costs? I’m not holding my breath.
(Also, those banners about ‘cut fares not staff’? Actually, number of rail workers has grown by approx 40% since 2000. But the ratio of passenger kilometres to number of staff has grown even more, partly because of evil efficient private sector management)
The unions are not historically noted for putting customers’ well-being above their own pay packets. So either they are funding and supporting these groups out of a disinterested concern for the public good, or because they think it’s in their own interest.
So irrespective of wider arguments about efficiency, merits of competition etc, it is not obvious that any savings from renationalisation via cutting out franchise operators will not be countered by increased union power, given unions bought and own the Labour leadership
To cut a very long story short: Britain’s railways are very far from perfect. But they’re a lot better than we think, and better than many if not most of our European rivals. And high prices are a pain in the neck, but partly reflect commuters paying more of actual journey cost.
Yes, there’s a really important conversation to have about how to make the railways better – and cheaper. But ‘Nationalise now!’ is not a very helpful contribution to that.
For more on this see our recent briefing on the case for rail’s defence cps.org.uk/files/reports/…, mentioned above. Or watch me on @BBCBreakfast here
