Thread by @Usherwood

A short thread on 'no-deal' and what it's a no-deal on

1/

(this comes from some queries on lines of "so no trade deal, but still a deal on other stuff, right?")

2/

At risk of sounding May-ish, 'no-deal' means no-deal, mostly likely on anything.

3/

#A50 is intended to resolve outstanding liabilities (Phase I) and set up mechs for agreeing new relations (Phase II)
4/

We'll only move to Phase II if 'sufficient progress' on Phase I: now not before Xmas

5/

Even if that happens, Phase I isn't closed, just continues to final agreement

6/

General principle here is 'nothing's agreed until everything's agreed'

7/

That means there's no ring-fencing of bits of agreement. eg even if citizens' rights is resolved, that's not formal yet

8/

Second key point is that a text - in of itself - isn't enough. It has to be ratified, by UK, maj of EU27, plus Eur.Parliament

9/

That ratification has to be done by end of #A50, which means you need a text by Oct 2018.

10/

So what you won't see is is frantic last-day negotiations in March 19 to bodge a partial deal (assuming no time extension)

11/

In short, there will either be a comprehensive A50 deal or nothing at all.

/end