Thread by @Usherwood

A simple model to help make sense of what's happening in the world of #Brexit this week:

1/

Essentially, Brexit is a negative-sum game, certainly in the short- to medium-term, and possibly in the long-term

2/

By moving the UK away from the EU (on whatever model you wish), you impose transition costs (because you're changing) and static costs (because UK-EU trade'll be less free than before, even if UK-world trade might free up later on)

3/

Art.50 is thus a process of managing and apportioning costs. Someone has to bear them, just a matter of who and (eventually) what they'll do about it.

4/

The economic side is up for discussion once more today, but yesterday's transition debate was an example of political side

5/

Of course, in part much hangs on how you scope things. If sovereignty weighs heavy, then balance changes, but even then not unambiguous

6/

So, just remember that key things will be:

- who carries costs?
- what can they do to mitigate these?

/end