Re: that whole Iran drone/F16 shoot down, here's what I think:
1- Now that we found out that the Israeli Air Force has carried "thousands of missions" in the last year alone, Iran/Assad had to do something to show some sort of resistance/mini deterrence.
1- Now that we found out that the Israeli Air Force has carried "thousands of missions" in the last year alone, Iran/Assad had to do something to show some sort of resistance/mini deterrence.
2- Since 2012, and given that Israel didn't experience any meaningful retaliation, the IAF attacks grew exponentially in numbers, type and severity.
3- Iran obv thought Feb 10th was the right time, it set the scene right. Drone, attract F-16s in daylight deep into Syria, launch everything you got at the F-16s..
4- To Iranians, and in the short term, Iran will send a msg to Israel, and score some points with the resistance crowd.
5 - In the long run though, Iran just handed Israel (and its allies) an even better reason to double down on efforts of curbing Iranian hegemony in Syria.
5 - In the long run though, Iran just handed Israel (and its allies) an even better reason to double down on efforts of curbing Iranian hegemony in Syria.
6- Most importantly: To Israelis, it is clear now that Russia is def NOT a guarantor in #Syria. All those Bibi trips to Moscow & all those Putin assurances have proven to be meaningless, time and time again, esp on Feb 10.
7- I don't know much about internal Israeli politics, but now that the camp that kept saying "Israel can only secure its Syria interests through negotiations with Russia" is proven wrong, what other policy options are there?
Interesting mobile.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/opi…
