Thread by @KirstyS_Hughes

EU draft trade guidelines: hard borders and lower trade lies ahead, Canada Dry it is.
A short thread 1.

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EU are clear, once again that UK cannot cherry-pick sectors in single market; there will be trade frictions, customs checks are vital for regulatory standards, rule of origin. This is clear rebuff (unsurprisingly of May’s speech last week) 2.

EU wants to cover agriculture & fisheries: unsurprising. Tariff-free trade in agric v imp for N. Ireland border, tho with this sort of Canada dry deal there will be a hard Irish border or one in Irish Sea. 3.

On fish, Brussels said for a while no access to markets without access to waters. Tough opening bid: ‘existing reciprocal access to fishing waters and resources should be maintained’ 4.

Framework for future relationship will be in a political declaration referenced in the Withdrawal Agreement. No framework agreed without progress on all other issues ie including legal form to backstop commitment on N Ireland border. 5

UK cannot be in EU institutions and regulatory agencies as a third country – swift, unsuprising, rebuff to May’s mention of being in Medicines, Chemicals, Aviation agencies. 6

Open to some trade in services, but taking account of UK as 3rd country, not part of EU regulatory, supervisory framework etc – open to ‘ambitious’ goals on movement of people. Open to an aviation agreement ‘to ensure connectivity’ 7.

Taken together such a free trade deal is going to be focused on goods, agriculture & fisheries more than services. Non-tariff barriers will mean big drops in UK-EU goods & services trade – as various estimates have predicted. 8.

Tough on ensuring a level playing field – state aid, competition, broader regulatory standards. EU making sure it doesn't give a Canada deal to a Singapore UK.
Wants police, judicial, foreign policy & security cooperation - UK of course wants this too 9.

EU will be ready to reconsider its offer, if the UK position changes – or in other words, it’s still Norway, Canada, or Turkey (customs union). UK position means it’s Canada – as Brussels has been saying for over a year now to anyone who is listening. 10 ends