I've been talking about the brittleness bubble for a long time now.
We're starting to see it rupture as extremely vulnerable coastal real estate begins to drop in price.
But here's the thing to remember: There are many vectors of brittleness.
Thread...
thinkprogress.org/rising-seas-hi…
We're starting to see it rupture as extremely vulnerable coastal real estate begins to drop in price.
But here's the thing to remember: There are many vectors of brittleness.
Thread...
thinkprogress.org/rising-seas-hi…
2. There are also many kinds of assets at risk: Far more than just low-lying coastal real estate prices.
3. But first, a few definitions.
Brittleness is the condition of being subject to sudden, catastrophic failure.
The brittleness bubble is the current over-valuation of assets which are being made brittle by the planetary crisis we're set in motion.
Brittleness is the condition of being subject to sudden, catastrophic failure.
The brittleness bubble is the current over-valuation of assets which are being made brittle by the planetary crisis we're set in motion.
4. Places/systems which are brittle can be "ruggedized."
That is, they can be protected in a variety of ways that lower their risk of sudden catastrophic failure.
The problem is, ruggedization costs money, sometimes a lot.
That is, they can be protected in a variety of ways that lower their risk of sudden catastrophic failure.
The problem is, ruggedization costs money, sometimes a lot.
5. In places/systems where the cost of ruggedization exceeds the future value of that place/system to decision-makers, ruggedization won't happen.
This is termed "residual damage"
This is termed "residual damage"
6. Here's the thing: brittleness is not a stable quality. You can't draw a line and say "this is brittle, but that is not."
As global warming worsens, as ecosystems are disrupted, as societal or economic instabilities emerge, more places become brittle.
As global warming worsens, as ecosystems are disrupted, as societal or economic instabilities emerge, more places become brittle.
7. If we let the planetary crisis grow severe enough, essentially all human civilization will become brittle.
One way of describing ecological collapse is to say that everything we hold dear passes into the realm of residual damage—of that we can't afford to save.
One way of describing ecological collapse is to say that everything we hold dear passes into the realm of residual damage—of that we can't afford to save.
8. The risks we face grow with inaction; so, too, do the losses we can expect.
9. Even if we now act boldly and heroically, though, brittleness will still continue undermining places/systems for generations.
Coastal real estate is just the start.
Coastal real estate is just the start.
10. Anywhere sudden disaster threatens local value on scales or with a regularity that can't be met with ruggedization, brittleness will become obvious.
11. Also, though, anywhere or any system which depends inextricably on inputs from elsewhere that are subject to sudden catastrophic disruption is becoming more brittle.
Brittleness runs through global supply chains and in geopolitical instabilities, too.
Brittleness runs through global supply chains and in geopolitical instabilities, too.
12. Finally, because the risks of continued planetary destabilization cost far more than the value of the systems most destabilizing the planet (e.g., coastal cities are worth far more than the oil industry), unsustainable industries are themselves brittle.
13. This is what we mean when we talk of the Carbon Bubble, and of The Snap Forward.
High-carbon systems and the businesses that run them are economically brittle in a way most of us have yet to acknowledge.
thenearlynow.com/the-real-polit…
High-carbon systems and the businesses that run them are economically brittle in a way most of us have yet to acknowledge.
thenearlynow.com/the-real-polit…
14. That means places that are dependent on those businesses for their prosperity are in deep trouble. And since most of those places are already deeply inequitable and struggling, real crises are on their way.
15. There are real reasons to believe that this economic brittleness extends to places that are auto-dependent, sprawling, infrastructure-heavy and based on continued outward growth for their financial stability.
In other words, exurbs are brittle.
In other words, exurbs are brittle.
16. Unsustainable overuse of resources can also combine with climate shifts and economic changes to render places brittle.
For example, as dryland farmers become more dependent on fossil groundwater, its depletion puts them at greater risk.
For example, as dryland farmers become more dependent on fossil groundwater, its depletion puts them at greater risk.
17. What happens in brittle places?
Eventually, abandonment. People give up, and everyone who can move on, does.
Note that our politics make it extremely unlikely that abandonment will a formal process.
Eventually, abandonment. People give up, and everyone who can move on, does.
Note that our politics make it extremely unlikely that abandonment will a formal process.
18. But long before places/systems are abandoned, they will see the flight of wealth, talent and youth to places with better prospects.
19. Smart and stable regions will be competing to attract those people.
20. The question is: Will they also be just regions, and make room for those who are coming, but are poor, less educated, older or more traumatized?
Whether places will welcome in-migration of refugees is the core climate justice question of the century.
Whether places will welcome in-migration of refugees is the core climate justice question of the century.
21. These migrations, of course, have already begun.
22. They're going to get much bigger.
22. Acting on brittleness and abandonment, climate displacements and migration will demand confronting the predatory delay of those who currently benefit from inaction.
23. So, too, is climate action about to accelerate and change, as the need to rapidly scale disruptive solutions takes preeminence.
thenearlynow.com/young-people-a…
thenearlynow.com/young-people-a…
Oops, wrong link.
Here:
Here:
24. It's also worth noting that some people really do not want to accept the reality of brittleness, because it makes their opposition to rapid change immoral—when an undisturbed status quo is profitable for them.
