Thread by @nicholadrummond

RUSSIA'S ENDGAME

Almost 30 years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia's experimentation with democracy is over. A totalitarian regime has been reinstated and the country has returned to the same state of economic weakness and isolation.

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Meanwhile, former Soviet satellites, especially Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic States, have achieved economic success through trade with their European neighbours. Ironically, democracy has transformed them into what Russia after communism ought to have become.

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Oppressive state control at home and aggressive expansionist policies abroad have led to economic sanctions and deteriorating relationships with countries that are Russia's natural allies and trading partners. The result is lower living standards for ordinary Russians.

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The Russian people have been told that the West is to blame for sanctions and their economic woes. This has fuelled resentment that has reinforced Putin's power base. Russia's belligerence also stems from its loss of status. It is now a regional power not a global one.

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For the above reasons, Putin has embarked on a mission to restore the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, he doesn't realise that superpower status comes from economic rather than military power. Like Trump, he simply wants to make Russia great again.

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However, the difference between Putin and Trump is that the American people get a say in who governs them. And, while in power, there are also enough checks and balances within the US system to ensure that any US President doesn't exceed his or her powers.

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Yet behind Putin, the mechanics of the Russian state remain the same as they were under Communist rule. It is still a dictatorial and draconian regime. Institutional brutality is as bad as it ever was before. The state simply isn't held accountable for its actions.

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The wars in Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine have been costly, both financially and in human terms, but not decisive. Putin has failed to achieve lasting victory in any former Soviet country he has invaded. But he avoids criticism by trying to silence any voices of dissent.

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Putin has discredited, arrested or eliminated all opposition. Not content with attacking former Soviet states, he has resorted to hybrid and cyber warfare against Western democracies to destabilise them. Russia has become a rogue state... and one with nuclear weapons.

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Sooner or later, the Russian people will realise that Putin is taking them down a path of destruction - either through economic meltdown or conflict with the West. They will demand change which means we could witness a revolution as bloody as that of 1917.

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The West must be a catalyst for change by applying continued economic and diplomatic pressure on Russia. We also need a policy of military containment that prevents further land grabs. This can only be achieved via credible armed forces that achieve a deterrent effect.

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It is important to remember that dictators tend to be rational and predictable, because their ultimate goal is always to hold onto power. Even so, we should remind ourselves that dictators precipitate wars through miscalculation and no one survives a nuclear exchange.

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roll up please.