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Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk
, 10 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Let's go through Netanyahu's dog-and-pony show. As you will see, everything he said was already known to the IAEA and published in IAEA GOV/2015/68 (2015). There is literally nothing new here and nothing that changes the wisdom of the JCPOA. 1/10
Let's start with the introduction. Netanyahu tells us that Iran's covert nuclear weapons program was called "Project Amad." Sounds scary. The IAEA, however, has already described Project Amad by name and in great detail in ¶ 22. 2/10
Netanyahu describes Iran's development of a nuclear weapons design, specifically implosion simulations. That's very bad. Also, that's old news. The IAEA assessed that "Iran conducted computer modelling of a nuclear explosive device" in ¶ 58-62. 3/10
Netanyahu also mentioned that Iran was developing an ability to cast uranium cores. The scoundrels! Again, the IAEA documented Iran's "preparatory work, not involving nuclear material, for the fabrication of uranium components for a nuclear explosive device" in ¶ 33-35. 4/10
Netanyahu also mentioned that Iran was designing a multipoint initiation (MPI) system. Not nice! But not new. The IAEA described Iran's MPI efforts and assessed that "the MPI technology developed by Iran has characteristics relevant to a nuclear explosive device" in ¶ 41-46. 5/10
And Netanyahu mentioned preparations for a nuclear test which would upset our friends at the CTBTO. But they know that already because the IAEA noted Iran's "preparatory experimentation relevant to testing a nuclear explosive device" in ¶ 66-68. 6/10
And finally, Netanyahu said Iran was integrating a warhead for the Shahab-3. Again, the IAEA described "work conducted in Iran ... to examine how to integrate a new spherical payload into the existing payload chamber of the re-entry vehicle for the Shahab 3 missile ..." 7/10
By the way, IAEA GOV/2015/68 documents lots of other weapons work that Netanyahu didn't mention. That is why the IAEA concluded in ¶ 87 that Iran had a "coordinated effort" to conduct "a range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device." 8/10
In other words, there is nothing new here. We all know Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003, and that some activities continued. That is precisely *why* the E3/EU+3 negotiated the JCPOA -- to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program. 9/10
foreignpolicy.com/2014/09/15/we-…
Conversely, if Trump kills the JCPOA, then Iran is likely to revive the nuclear weapons program that Netanyahu just showed in pornographic detail. If you like a nuclear-armed North Korea, you are going to LOVE walking away from the Iran nuclear deal. 10/10
foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/31/ira…
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